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TOP STORY
FEATURE: EU may lose out on US LNG imports under Trump, prompting a rethink
LNG trade may cease to be a bargaining chip in relations between Brussels and Washington under the next Trump administration, forcing the EU to rethink its energy transition plans for the coming years, according to experts.
CARBON FORWARD MIDDLE EAST
Annual CORSIA carbon market valuation to exceed current VCM in Phase 1 -analysts
The price of carbon credits eligible for CORSIA Phase 1 (2024-26) could reach as high as $51 per tonne based on the current supply and demand outlook, with the annual market valuation for the period to exceed the current total for the entire VCM, according to analysts speaking at the Carbon Forward Middle East conference this week.
FEATURE – Compliance emissions pricing measures take root in the Gulf
Multiple gulf states have adopted domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pricing or reporting schemes over the past year, reflecting coordinated efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of their economies, market participants said at Carbon Forward Middle East in Abu Dhabi.
Iraq steps up Article 6 push with project reviews, talk of ‘cooperative approaches’
The Iraqi government has in recent weeks deliberated on cooperative approaches, a source familiar with the matter said Friday – just weeks after the country announced it had begun reviewing carbon project proposals to take the Paris Agreement from theory to practice.
EMEA
Proposed ‘exchange rate’ for EU carbon allowances faces barrage of criticism
The method put forward by the European Commission to calculate the exchange rate applicable when clawing back EU carbon allowances that are unduly or mistakenly delivered to operators “raises serious concerns”, according to Finland and other market players.
Gabon launches sovereign carbon initiative with $17/t “contribution”, CORSIA-linked offsetting provisions
Forest-rich Gabon has launched a sovereign carbon initiative that will require air travel and shipping operators to pay a $17-per-tonne emissions “contribution” to cover some of their climate impact from journeys to and from the African country, as well as provisions linked to offsetting using CORSIA-eligible credits.
New Austrian government to scrap climate bonus as part of budget cuts
Austria will abolish its climate bonus as part of a €6.4 billion budget cut announced Thursday by its new coalition government, which brings together centre-right and far-right parties.
UK decarbonisation plan wards off threat from dwindling Norwegian gas supply
The UK’s drive to decarbonise most of its electricity grid by 2030 has been given added impetus after Norway, a main fossil fuel exporter to the UK, warned that production will start declining before the end of the decade.
UK startup raises $13 mln to scale limestone-based DAC technology
A London-headquartered limestone-based carbon removal (CDR) provider announced Thursday it has secured $13 million in Series A funding.
Estonian agtech completes large-scale soil sampling for future carbon credits
An Estonia-based agtech company on Thursday announced it has completed a cross-border soil sampling campaign in Europe to generate carbon credits under the Verra standard.
Euro Markets: EUAs top significant level as speculative buyers continue to bolster prices, as UKAs weaken again
European prices forged higher for a seventh consecutive day on Friday, breaching an important psychological level during the session before posting a 5.9% weekly gain as buyers kept control of the price action, while energy markets followed the strength in EUAs across the board but UKAs weakened again to their least since the market’s record low a year ago.
AMERICAS
Invalidation expires for nearly 3 mln CCOs along with robust ARB first offset outlay of 2025
The invalidation period of about 3 million credits expired during California regulator ARB’s first bi-weekly compliance-eligible offset issuance of 2025, agency data showed.
CFTC: Investors trim exposure in CCAs, RGGI, LCFS markets
Financial entities reduced net length in V25 California Carbon Allowances (CCA), RGGI Allowances (RGA), and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LFS) futures and options as volatility spiked in the secondary market, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
Policy reform needed to mitigate carbon price impact on California energy costs, state watchdog says
While California’s cap-and-trade programme raised energy costs in 2023, lawmakers have a number of policy options to use revenues to better support consumers through the energy transition, the state’s carbon market watchdog said Thursday.
Attorneys General from 23 Republican states sue EPA over methane tax
The Attorney General of Texas led 22 other states in a lawsuit against the US EPA, alleging that the agency exceeded its authority in implementing a fee for excess methane emissions.
New York court dismisses city’s climate lawsuit against fossil fuel companies
The City of New York has effectively lost its lawsuit against several oil giants, failing to prove their claim that the companies misled consumers in marketing of climate-friendly practices, according to a decision filed in state court on Tuesday.
US DOE awards $1.7 bln to green hydrogen producer
The US DOE awarded a $1.7 billion loan guarantee to a New York-based green hydrogen company close to one year after the company suffered from cashflow issues that nearly sent it into bankruptcy.
Shopify ends 2024 with $36.3 mln in carbon removal deals
Shopify spent $36.3 million on carbon removal (CDR) in 2024, increasing its total commitment to $83.9 million, the e-commerce company announced on Thursday.
ASIA PACIFIC
CN Markets: CEA trading grinds to a halt as compliance deadline passes
Sentiment in the Chinese carbon market has fallen off a cliff in recent days after the completion of the annual compliance deadline, with permits trading below 95 yuan ($12.96) over the past week.
PREVIEW: High hopes for Indonesian exchange’s first international carbon credit sale, but doubts raised over buyer interest
Indonesia’s first international sale of carbon credits on its national exchange next week has been hailed as an exciting development for the country’s market, but observers have raised concerns that there could be a lack of interested buyers for a multitude of reasons.
China thermal power growth slows in 2024, coal outputs reach record high
Growth in China’s thermal power generation in 2024 slowed from the previous year, but annual production of coal and gas both reached new record highs, according to government data published Friday.
INTERNATIONAL
Analysts predict big 2025 ramp-up for CCUS
The world looks close to adding 20% new carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) capacity in 2025, a leading energy consultancy said this week, calling it the “largest annual increase to date”.
Carbon storage building materials could absorb half of world’s annual CO2 -study
Tweaking conventional building materials to absorb CO2 could boost carbon storage capacity to half of the world’s emissions annually, a new scientific study estimated.
VOLUNTARY
DATA DIVE: Record number of new VCM entrants in 2024 a positive sign for the market
A record number of new entrants in the voluntary carbon market (VCM) in 2024 offers a positive signal, despite lacklustre overall volumes and weak price movement.
INTERVIEW: Startup capturing CO2 from the ocean touts mechanism to curb energy use
A direct ocean capture startup claims to have a unique way to use curtailed renewable energy to power the majority of its energy use, significantly reducing its drain on the electricity grid.
Verra flooded with suggestions on improving VCS Programme
Verra was inundated with comments from stakeholders in response to a wide ranging survey on the core concepts of its Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) Programme, it revealed Friday.
“Year of contrasts” for VCM as carbon credits see moving trends in 2024 -report
Higher issuances of more recent vintages as well as soaring interest in cookstove credits are among the key takeaways from the VCM in 2024, a year marked by an historic deal on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, according to a report published on Friday.
BIODIVERSITY (FREE TO READ)
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UK standards body closes consultations on domestic nature market framework
A UK national standards body on Friday closed a public consultation on the first nature market framework in the country, aimed at standardising how biodiversity benefits are measured and verified, while establishing requirements for high-quality metrics.
New Irish govt programme fuels concerns over biodiversity protection
The Republic of Ireland’s incoming government coalition published this week a plan setting out the actions it aims to take over the next five years, with environmental organisations raising concerns over the lack of strong commitments on biodiversity protection and restoration.
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EVENTS
Carbon Forward Middle East – Jan. 16-17, Abu Dhabi – Announcing Carbon Forward Middle East in Abu Dhabi, a great new event to explore carbon markets in the MENA region. Coinciding with Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and kicking off the day after IETA’s MENA Carbon Market Dialogue, we’re bringing together regional and international carbon markets experts to discuss opportunities and risks within MENA. The two-day event will be a must-attend for anyone working in, or wishing to explore, carbon markets in the region. Last chance to register
Calyx Webinar: 5 Ways to Minimize Environmental and Social Risk – Jan. 29 – As a carbon credit buyer you want to maximize your impact and minimize your risk. Join sustainable development experts as they share strategies for decreasing environmental and social risks in carbon projects so you can make informed purchasing decisions and investments. Register now!
Carbon Forward Asia – Mar. 4-5, Singapore – Our third annual Asian conference will once again be held in Singapore. Like at our past events, we’re excited to bring together experts from Asia Pacific to talk ASEAN markets, regional opportunities, developments in local and global carbon pricing, and all the topics you need to hear about across a stimulating two days. Register here
North American Carbon World (NACW) – Mar. 25-27, Los Angeles – The annual NACW conference addresses the most pressing issues in climate policy and carbon markets to the largest gathering of climate professionals in North America. NACW 2025 will dive into major new policies and developments that will shape and scale carbon markets and climate solutions with integrity and ambition. In addition to outstanding speakers, discussions, and insights, NACW provides premier networking opportunities with an active and engaged audience of carbon professionals. Join us for the content, community, and connections for successfully navigating the low-carbon landscape and advancing market-based climate solutions. www.nacwconference.com
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Premium job listings
- Forest Carbon Sales Manager, Manulife Investment Management Timberland And Agriculture – Boston/Remote
- Assistant Director, Carbon Markets, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) – Washington DC/at Asia Society Centers in US, India, Korea, Japan, Australia, France, or Switzerland
- Senior Program Officer, Carbon Markets, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) – Washington DC/at Asia Society Centers in US, India, Korea, Japan, Australia, France, or Switzerland
See all listings or post a job
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ADVERTISING BROCHURE
Carbon Pulse has published its 2025 advertising brochure and media pack, featuring updated offerings and prices. With that, bookings are now open for advertising on our website and in our newsletters.
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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
EMEA
Aviation’s next steps – The next German government must ensure that aviation can become climate-neutral within 20 years, which will require a number of policy initiatives, according to an alliance of environmental NGOs. The alliance, which included environmental NGO umbrella group DNR and clean mobility think tank Transport & Environment (T&E) said the future government, to be decided in next month’s elections, must present a roadmap outlining the necessary steps to reach climate neutrality by 2045. On top of moving to sustainable aviation fuels, optimised flight routes, and technical efficiency measures, short- and medium-haul flights also need to be switched to rail where necessary, the group said. They also advocated for the appropriate tax measures, such as further development of the national aviation tax and the EU ETS. The groups urged a phase-out of tax privileges and subsidies for air transport, and called for more attractive train services to encourage people to travel overland instead. (Clean Energy Wire)
HSBC for hydrogen – HSBC UK will provide “multi-million-pound funding” to Hygen Energy to expand capacity at its green hydrogen production site in Birmingham, UK, a statement said on Thursday. Hygen will receive backing in the form of asset finance lent to advance its facility at the Tyseley Energy Park (TEP) and develop additional sites across the UK, which will be provided through HSBC Equipment Finance, the statement read. From its refuelling unit at the Tyseley site, Hygen supplies hydrogen to major customers such as National Express and JCB for their emissions reduction efforts.
Disclosing carbon – The Russian registry of carbon units has published recommendations for the disclosure of carbon units and quota fulfillment units in accounting reports as of Friday on its website. Accounting of objects related to the circulation of carbon units and GHG emission quota fulfillment units must be maintained in the manner established by the Federal Law “On Accounting” and regulatory legal acts adopted in accordance with it. Further details here.
ASIA PACIFIC
Ammonia alliance – Australian company Allied Green Ammonia has signed a purchase agreement with US-based electrolyser manufacturer Plug Power to buy 3 GW of electrolyser capacity for its Gove hydrogen-to-ammonia plant in the Northern Territory, Renew Economy reported. It follows a number of agreements signed between the two companies, with the electrolysers expected to be powered by a 4.5 GW solar plant, and the hydrogen produced to be turned into 912,000 tonnes of green ammonia per year. Plug will now develop a Basic Engineering and Design Package (BEDP) that outlines the technical details and engineering specifications to attract investment and complete financialisation of the project. The project is targeting first production in 2029.
Green, green LNG – Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister has floated linking its forests to its LNG production, speaking at the retirement of a prominent ExxonMobil executive who had worked on the nation’s gas projects. James Marape said this week he had “discussed the importance of aligning our LNG production with PNG’s green credentials” with the company, according to a statement posted to the ministerial website. “Our goal is to brand Papua New Guinea as a green energy nation, producing LNG from a country with a negative carbon footprint. This will make our LNG more attractive to buyers in both spot and long-term contracted markets,” Marape said. Last year he sent only a skeleton crew to COP29 in protest over a lack of recognition of PNG’s forests as a global carbon sink. TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil operate the two LNG export projects in the nation. TotalEnergies claimed in late 2020 to have sent the first ‘carbon neutral’ LNG cargo.
Farewell PEP11 – Australia’s most contentious gas permit PEP-11 offshore New South Wales in the barely-drilled Sydney Basin has finally been cancelled, with federal Minister for Industry Ed Husic announcing it Friday. Operatorship was held by Advent Energy, which was made up of three interlinked and private companies all run by the same David Breeze. While BPH Energy, one of the three and listed on the securities exchange, publicly promised it could offer large volumes of new supply to a tight market even Liberal Party members with wealthy coastal electorates lined up against it, despite overall friendliness to the industry. It became a flashpoint during the 2022 election where ‘teal’ independents used climate change to win some of those same seats. Breeze, for his part, vowed to fight on each time the permit looked like it would be cancelled.
Vietnam JCM consult – The Japan-Vietnam committee is seeking public comment on proposed projects to earn accreditation for Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) credits for a 2.5 megawatt rooftop solar power system on a food factory and a garment factory, and another 0.4 MW installation on an aluminum wheel factory. The consultation opens Jan.20 and closes Feb.18. In November nine projects were approved in the first new approvals in five years.
AMERICAS
“Free Land” campaign – Chrystia Freeland, former finance minister and deputy prime minister, is set to go head-to-head with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney in the Liberal Party leadership race. Freeland announced on social media she would be “running to fight for Canada”, noting her official launch scheduled for Sunday. Freeland loudly resigned from outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet last December. In her role she introduced a number of climate-related measures, including billions-of-dollars in carbon rebate measures as part of the carbon tax collected during her tenure and oversight of carbon credit offtake agreements. She appeared to have flipped on her policy ideals earlier this week with a source telling local media she’d pledge to cut at least the consumer portion of the carbon tax during her leadership bid.
A Trump CBAM? – Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Treasury Secretary, said that he is interested in enacting a carbon border adjustment mechanism in the US. Bessent told the Senate Finance Committee Thursday that a carbon fee could be part of a larger tariff programme. If confirmed, he said he would be interested in working on a range of tariff strategies, including one “that could be specifically aimed at carbon”. (Reuters)
VOLUNTARY
Newly endorsed trader – Carbon Standards International (CSI) has endorsed carbon removal marketplace Supercritical as a C-Sink trader, it announced on LinkedIn. This reflects Supercritical’s dedication to transparency in the carbon removal sector, providing access to high-quality projects with live pricing and availability data across multiple pathways, the statement read. CSI develops standards and strategies for carbon-neutral agriculture and industry. Its standards include those for biochar, carbon sinks, and global cooling.
Risk offset – Carbon credits generated from the capping of orphaned and/or abandoned oil and gas wells to prevent methane emissions have been insured by AXA, in an offering described as an industry first. AXA’s ‘Insured Carbon’ programme aims to assure buyers and investors with a guarantee of the authenticity and reliability of the credits they purchase. The process aims to ensure integrity and permanence, from creation through retirement, up to 20-years. The programme protects against any potential devaluation, degradation, deterioration, or invalidation for the life of verified carbon credits. Each verified credit is also verified as a digital asset on blockchain.
INVESTMENT
Market panic – The world’s financial stability watchdog, the Financial Stability Board, said that disasters caused by climate change are increasingly likely to trigger broader panic in financial markets. The world surpassed 1.5C of warming for the first time last year, increasing changes of more environmental disasters. Increased risk could lead banks to reduce lending, and there could be an abrupt, broad-based repricing of climate physical risk, the Board’s report states. This rethink has been triggered in part by the Californian fires, which have put the spotlight on how some major companies have been pulling out of the states, leaving about 10% of residences without home insurance and many others reliant on a non-profit insurer of last resort. (FT)
Atlantic Canada adaptation – Natural Resources Canada has announced C$8.8 mln (US$6 mln) in funding for nine Atlantic Canadian projects under its Climate Change Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Costal Communities programmes. Projects are expected to focus on developing and improving strategies, tools and resources; strengthening the knowledge and skills of practitioners; and implementing innovative adaptation actions to address climate change risks and adaptation gaps. Projects were not listed in the announcement.
SCIENCE & TECH
Record heat – Wildfires helped to drive a record annual leap in atmospheric CO2 last year, alongside continued emissions from coal, oil and gas, the Guardian reported. The natural El Niño climate cycle also contributed, by delivering hotter and drier conditions in the tropics, though a record rise would probably have occurred even without it, according to scientists. The CO2 level at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.6 parts per million to 427 ppm in 2024, far above the 280 ppm level. The global average temperature also set a new record in 2024, meaning the planet passed the 1.5C Paris Agreement target for the first time. Wildfires were particularly prevalent in the Americas last year, including in Canada, which isn’t affected by El Niño.
AND FINALLY…
Distance makes the Heartland grow stronger? – Climate science deniers are readying a political offensive in the UK, after US lobby group the Heartland Institute opened a UK branch in London, the Guardian reports. The launch of Heartland UK/Europe, held in December at the exclusive Brooks private members club in Mayfair, included guest of honour Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and a prominent climate denier, as well as short-lived Prime Minister Liz Truss and current Conservative MP and Shadow Trade Minister Andrew Griffith. The Heartland Institute has links to the incoming Trump administration and is funded by companies including ExxonMobil and wealthy US Republican donors. The launch comes as Farage attacks the UK’s net zero goals a centrepiece of his part’s electoral pitch.
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