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TOP STORIES
POLL: Tightening supply, speculator positioning lead analysts to lift EU carbon price forecasts
Analysts have nudged up their forecasts for EU carbon allowance prices for the remainder of Phase 4 (2021-30), predicting that tighter market conditions will start to bite from this year.
POLL: Analysts retain bearish near-term outlook for UK Allowances on policy uncertainty, oversupply
Analysts have kept their bearish UK Allowance outlook for the year ahead due to the policy uncertainty and oversupply that continue to hang over the market, revising down forecasts for benchmark futures prices by around 5% compared to previous polling.
EMEA
UK could use ITMOs as last resort to hit ambitious climate target in 2035
The UK could use international carbon credits to meet a Paris Agreement, although only as a last resort if domestic mitigation policies struggle, the government announced Thursday.
UK has high potential for energy-from-waste, carbon capture removals, finds paper
Energy-from-waste (EfW), when combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS), could generate high quality removal credits in the UK, a new paper has found.
UK proceeds with technical ETS changes aimed at transparency, simplification
The UK ETS Authority intends to move forward with proposed technical and operational changes to the market, aimed at creating more transparency, maintaining parallels with the EU ETS, and simplifying compliance, it announced on Thursday evening.
EU investment bank touts record climate spending, amid transparency concerns
The European Investment Bank (EIB) touted record climate-related spending in 2024, with nearly 60% of its total operations going in support of the green transition, but concerns remain over the transparency of the bank’s sustainability reporting.
Euro Markets: EUAs retreat after setting 15-month high, as analysts highlight retracement potential
European carbon allowance prices reached a new 15-month high on Thursday morning, before giving back the gains as EUAs cut loose from their recent correlation with TTF natural gas and German power in the afternoon amid a pick-up in selling activity, with analysts pointing to growing potential for a price retracement.
Shell digs deep for share value as oil and gas profits fall, with renewables sidelined
Shell’s investment in green energy flatlined last year, despite strong voluntary carbon market activity, as its leadership spearheaded a refocus on fossil fuels, but the pivot failed to stop profits dropping amid falling oil prices, annual results confirmed Thursday.
Europe’s hydrogen buildout risks extending gas dependence -report
Europe’s strategy of converting gas-fired power plants into hydrogen facilities is running behind schedule and risks acting as a front to continue investments in fossil infrastructure, a study by a global energy think tank has revealed.
“Great sign” as enhanced rock weathering makes it on EU policy agenda
The European Commission will consider enhanced rock weathering (ERW) among other permanent removal techniques under the EU’s Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Certification (CRCF) Regulation.
Norway to launch next phase of forest satellite data programme
Norway’s rainforest protection initiative is preparing to launch a new phase of its satellite data programme later this year to strengthen monitoring of deforestation, forest degradation, and biodiversity in tropical forests, the government announced this week.
Canadian firm to provide dMRV service for major Article 6 cookstoves programme in Nigeria
A greenhouse gas software service provider has partnered with an African cookstoves developer to support digital quantification and verification of carbon credits resulting from the distribution of millions of improved cookstoves across Nigeria over the next five years.
AMERICAS
WCI Markets: “Skittish” CCAs briefly sniff sub-$30
Benchmark California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) traded below $30 for the first time in nearly two years as rulemaking uncertainty continued to weigh on the market, while earlier-dated Washington Carbon Allowances (WCA) lost more ground this week.
Microsoft, US carbon project developer sign offtake deal for 7 mln ARR credits
A New York City-based carbon project developer has signed an offtake agreement to deliver 7 million afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) credits to the tech giant over 25 years, according to a Thursday press release.
US transportation secretary rescinds emissions reductions mandate for highways
State transportation departments will no longer be required to establish highway emissions reductions targets, according to measures taken by the new US transportation secretary on Wednesday.
Washington state lawmakers introduce livestock methane emissions reporting legislation
Democratic lawmakers in Washington’s House of Representatives introduced legislation earlier this month to require farmers to submit annual methane emission reports for livestock.
North Dakota Senate considers low carbon fuel fund to pave way for SAF production
North Dakota’s legislature will consider a bill that promotes carbon capture and storage (CCS) to allow ethanol producers to lower their carbon intensity (CI) and qualify for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production credits.
Shell Canada exits Alberta oilsands, raises CCS stake
Canadian oil and gas giant Shell Canada is officially out of Alberta’s oilsands, increasing its carbon capture and storage (CCS) stake in an existing project.
Net-zero Canada dream limits economic growth -report
Canada’s plans to reduce emissions could cost workers thousands of dollars, and a quarter-million jobs by the half-century, according to a new report.
UPDATE – Carbon project financier reports significant setbacks at US reforestation project
(Updated with comments from Mast Reforestation CEO) – A Toronto-based carbon project financier on Monday announced that one of its reforestation projects in the US has experienced significant setbacks, with tree mortality rates exceeding expectations and slower-than-anticipated growth among surviving seedlings.
ASIA PACIFIC
New Zealand announces modest target increase in 2035 NDC
New Zealand on Thursday announced its nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2035, modestly deepening its emissions reductions goal while switching to a single-year target from a multi-year one in the current decade.
Japanese steelmaker to supply ‘green steel’ pipes to Singapore
Japan’s Nippon Steel said Thursday it will supply a form of lower carbon steel to Singapore’s Hupsteel, one of the largest wholesalers in the city-state, although Japanese environmental groups take issue with this particular type of carbon accounting.
Jakarta eyes regional carbon pricing scheme
The Jakarta metropolitan region, accounting for nearly 5% of Indonesia’s emissions, is considering launching its own carbon pricing mechanism and achieve net zero status by 2050, according to documents from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Australia’s CEFC, NAB team up with to offer A$300 mln to reduce emissions
The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and National Australia Bank (NAB) announced a A$300 million ($186 mln) co-financing programme to help manufacturers, businesses and farmers transition to net zero emissions.
Restoring Southeast Asia’s wetlands could slash regional land use emissions by half, study finds
Protecting and restoring Southeast Asia’s peat swamp forests and mangroves could reduce the region’s land use carbon emissions by approximately 54%, despite these ecosystems covering only 5.4% of the region’s land area, a study has found.
INTERNATIONAL
BRIEFING: Pacific, Caribbean islands face upfront carbon project financing challenges as banks exit en masse
Small island developing states (SIDS) in the Pacific and Caribbean are seeing an exodus of international financial institutions, while correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) granting local banks access to capital markets have also evaporated, posing challenges for the development of Article 6 projects in the region.
Energy transition investment grows 11% to record $2.1 trillion in 2024 -report
Global energy transition investment surpassed $2 trillion for the first time, led by China, which is investing at more than twice the rate of any other economy, according to a new report published Thursday.
BRIEFING: Pre-arranged finance for disaster response is key to climate resilience, say experts
Anticipating climate crises before they happen and pre-arranging finance for disaster response will lessen the economic impact and improve the ability to respond to the effects of climate change in a fair and equitable manner, experts have said.
VOLUNTARY
Deeper reforms targetting flawed accounting, perverse incentives needed to preserve voluntary carbon market -researchers
Despite improvements made in the past few years, “deeper and more comprehensive reforms” are required – in particular to address flawed accounting approaches and perverse incentives – in order to assure the voluntary carbon market’s longer-term sustainability, a new academic paper warns.
Seaweed farms store carbon at rates matching coastal forests -report
Seaweed farms store carbon in seabed sediments at rates comparable to mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, according to a new global study.
Large areas of UK peatlands at threat of disappearing due to climate change -report
Vast swathes of UK peatlands are likely to be unsuitable for peat accumulation in less than 40 years’ time due to climate change, with the Flow Country, Dartmoor, and the Peak District particularly at risk, a new study has found.
UK microalgae carbon removal startup sells first credits to European insurer
A UK-based carbon removal developer has sold its first credits under a multi-year offtake agreement to a large European insurance firm, they announced Thursday.
SHIPPING
Shipping’s early uptake of sustainable e-fuels impossible without emissions levy, modelling shows
Early uptake of sustainable e-fuels in the shipping sector will only take place if an e-fuel reward is introduced, with the revenue raised via carbon levy, new analysis has found.
BIODIVERSITY (FREE TO READ)
All our nature and biodiversity articles remain free to read (no subscription required). However, we now require that all readers have a Carbon Pulse login to access this content in full. To get a login, sign up for a free trial of our news. If you’ve already had a trial, then you already have a login.
Conservation group raises alarm over glaring loophole in South Australia Biodiversity Act
A provision in South Australia’s proposed Biodiversity Act could see the legislation disregarded completely at the government’s discretion, according to a land conservation group urging it to be removed.
AI-powered platform launches to advance corporate action on nature
An AI-powered business intelligence unit launched on Thursday to help private organisations take action on nature, including exploring opportunities in the nascent biodiversity credit market.
Swiss startup raises further $16 mln for scaling PFAS destruction technology
A Zurich-based startup has raised $16 million in seed funding to scale its economically sustainable technology aimed at destroying per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) molecules from wastewater, the company announced Thursday.
Nature risk company raises €3.8 mln in seed funding
Nala Earth has raised €3.8 million in seed funding towards its goal of helping to integrate nature risk into corporate decision-making and spur ecosystem restoration, bringing the total amount raised to €5.5 mln.
UK nature credit company acquires South African developer
An England-based nature tech company announced on Thursday it has reached an agreement to acquire a South Africa-headquartered project developer, aiming to advance its ongoing work on nature credits.
Biodiversity Pulse: Thursday January 30, 2025
A twice-weekly summary of our biodiversity news plus bite-sized updates from around the world. All articles in this edition are free to read (no subscription required).
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EVENTS
India Climate Week – Feb. 3-7, New Delhi – Carbon Markets Association of India (CMAI) is launching India Climate Week at Hotel Le Meridien, New Delhi. This event will bring together policymakers, industry leaders, and climate action advocates to discuss carbon markets, green technologies, and India’s Net Zero path. Highlights include panel discussions on emerging climate trends, a two-day certification workshop on carbon markets by Indian Institute of Corporate Affairs (IICA), the launch of India SAF and EPR Alliance, and field visits to CBG and Article 6 technologies. The event will feature Shri Nitin Gadkari, Hon’ble Union Minister of Road, Transport and Highways, and Shri Manohar Lal Khattar, Hon’ble Union Minister of Power. Register here.
Carbon Forward Asia – Mar. 4-5, Singapore – Our third annual Asian conference will once again be held in Singapore. Like at our past events, we’re excited to bring together experts from Asia Pacific to talk ASEAN markets, regional opportunities, developments in local and global carbon pricing, and all the topics you need to hear about across a stimulating two days. Register here
North American Carbon World (NACW) – Mar. 25-27, Los Angeles – The annual NACW conference addresses the most pressing issues in climate policy and carbon markets to the largest gathering of climate professionals in North America. NACW 2025 will dive into major new policies and developments that will shape and scale carbon markets and climate solutions with integrity and ambition. In addition to outstanding speakers, discussions, and insights, NACW provides premier networking opportunities with an active and engaged audience of carbon professionals. Join us for the content, community, and connections for successfully navigating the low-carbon landscape and advancing market-based climate solu
tions. www.nacwconference.com
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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
EMEA
What’s next in Støre? – A dispute over EU energy policies has led to the collapse of Norway’s coalition government. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s push to implement three EU energy directives led to the abrupt departure of his party’s Eurosceptic partner, the pro-farmer Centre party, on Thursday. The collapse of the coalition leaves the premier’s Labour party to govern alone until elections later this year. The country must not give away more power to the EU, said Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, leader of the Centre party and Norway’s finance minister. (FT)
Teaming up – A pan-African carbon market, coordinated through institutions like the African Continental Free Trade Area, could consolidate fragmented national efforts into a unified platform, according to a post from economists Rim Berahab and Otaviano Canuto. Such a market would lower entry barriers for smaller economies, streamline standards, and attract international investment, they argued. It would also bolster Africa’s role in advancing nature-based climate solutions, allowing the continent to deliver global emissions reductions while supporting local communities.
Big solar – The UK has approved two major solar farms that could provide enough electricity for more than 200,000 homes, according to the developers. The West Burton Solar Project and the Heckington Fen Solar Park were both greenlighted by UK Energy Minister Ed Miliband, which will contribute to the government’s mission to decarbonise the power grid by 2030. Miliband previously criticised the previous Conservative-led government for letting such decisions languish. (Bloomberg)
Miles behind – Scotland is “unlikely” to meet its 2030 climate change target to reduce kilometres driven by 20% on a 2019 baseline, according to a report by public spending watchdogs. Audit Scotland, which oversees Scottish government spending, and the Accounts Commission, which oversees local government spending, said there had been minimal progress, and there was a lack of leadership and “no clear plan” for meeting the target. Audit Scotland said in order to achieve the car kilometre target, car traffic levels would need to decrease by 7.3 bln km to 29.3 bln — the last time car use was at this level was 1994. Decisions to discourage car use would be “difficult and potentially unpopular” and council spend to cut car use is fragmented, they found. The government therefore needs to be clear how falling behind in this area will affect plans to achieve its net zero goal by 2045. (BBC)
Unlawful consent – A court has ruled that consent for two new Scottish oil and gas fields was granted unlawfully and their owners must seek fresh approval from the UK government before production can begin. The judgement on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields followed a case brought by environmental campaigners, Uplift and Greenpeace, at the Court of Session in Edinburgh. It was ruled a more detailed assessment of the fields’ environmental impact was required, considering the climate effect of burning any fossil fuels extracted. There was a public interest in having the decision “remade on a lawful basis” because of the effects of climate change – which the judge said outweighed the interests of the developers. Equinor-backed Rosebank contains an estimated 300 mln- 500 mln barrels of oil, making it the largest known untapped field in UK waters. (BBC)
Cars talking – EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has convened key European industry leaders, social partners, and stakeholders for the launch of the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Automotive Industry. Today’s discussions focus on the main areas that require urgent attention, including the need for an international ‘level playing field’, to facilitate the clean transition and regulatory streamlining, as well as identifying areas where more concrete measures are needed. A public consultation was also launched.
Waste-to-methanol plant approved – Enerkem, a global technology provider enabling low-carbon fuels and chemicals production from waste, announced that Repsol’s Board of Directors has approved the final investment decision for the Ecoplanta project, which will use Enerkem’s technology to convert non-recyclable municipal waste into methanol. The facility, led by Repsol, a multinational energy and petrochemical company, will be located in El Morell, Spain. The project is expected to process 400,000 tonnes of waste annually, producing 240,000 tonnes of methanol for use in advanced biofuels and circular materials. The project aims to reduce landfill waste and emissions in transport and chemical industries, with operations set to begin in 2029.
ASIA PACIFIC
Green Taxonomy – Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday announced the introduction of a green taxonomy framework by April, local media outlet The Dawn reported on Tuesday. He said it will help businesses identify and support environmentally sustainable activities, enabling them to earn carbon credits and access green financing. He also highlighted that, despite securing $9 bln in pledges after the 2022 floods, much of the financing has not materialized due to a lack of investable projects.
Renewable roll out will cost more – Australia’s Clean Energy Investor Group commissioned consultancy Baringa to cost the fastest and most economically effective way for Australia to reach the Paris Climate goals and said in a report Thursday that the full cost will be billions and billions of dollars more than current outlooks. Decarbonising the National Electricity Market (NEM) will need private investment of A$421 bln ($262 bln) with onshore wind needing A$208 bln of that, and offshore wind $9 bln. A further A$41 bln of public investment will also be needed for transmission. This private investment in generation and storage is A$116 bln more that current government and market investment plans, it found. “Current market scenarios for decarbonising the NEM either fall short of government commitments or rely on assumptions that are not credible with mainstream investors,” it said.
New CO2 carrier – KLine Shipping said Thursday its new-build liquefied CO2 carrier the Northern Pathfinder was delivered to the Northern Lights project at the end of December. It is the second CO2 carrier at the European carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. KLine is the subsidiary of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha. CO2 transport is seen as crucial for an international CCS industry. The gas liquefies at a much higher temperature than LNG, which requires around -160C while hydrogen liquefies at -252C.
Project Jupiter – The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) on Thursday announced A$20.8 mln ($12.9 mln) in funding to Western Power, in Western Australia which is not connected to the national grid, to develop an end-to-end commercial solution focused on operating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) within the South West Interconnected System (SWIS). It is called Project Jupiter. DERs are typically smaller operations that generate and store energy. Australia, thanks to its size, has some of the largest DER penetration globally, ARENA said.
AMERICAS
Mexico, Canada tariffs expected Saturday – US President Donald Trump made good on his promise to impose broad tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. The president announced Thursday that his 25% tariffs on the two neighbouring nations would begin Saturday, but said that he’s still considering whether to include oil as part of the tariffs. “We may or may not,” Trump told reporters Thursday, according to the AP. “We’re going to make that determination probably tonight.” Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the president’s advisors were trying to avoid enacting the kind of universal tariffs that Trump is pledging. While the trade action will likely be announced Saturday, it may only affect sectors like steel and aluminium. Trump originally floated the idea of the tariffs in response to migration from the southern border and cross-border drug trafficking. On Wednesday, Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta called for the appointment of a border czar to work with the Trump administration to secure the US-Canadian border.
EV expansion expected to ease – Recent executive orders in the US are expected to slow EV adoption, with projections lowering the plug-in EV market share to 23% by 2030 from 32%, according to a Wood Mackenzie report. The analysis showed that policy changes could affect tax credits, emissions standards, and state regulations, while a review of federal EV charging infrastructure funding could delay deployment. The report also highlighted potential impacts on battery demand and raw material costs, particularly with proposed tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports. Analysts anticipate higher EV prices and a slower transition but expect continued long-term growth in the sector.
Hochul’s climate plan questioned – New York lawmakers questioned interim Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Sean Mahar on Governor Kathy Hochul’s (D) climate funding plans during a budget hearing, E&E reported. Legislators sought clarity on the state’s delayed cap and invest programme (NYCI), which would charge companies and fuel distributors for GHGs and reinvest the funds into clean energy initiatives. Legislators also requested details on Hochul’s proposal for a one-time $1 bln allocation for climate priorities. Mahar did not provide a timeline for implementing NYCI, noting that the state needed to ensure New Yorkers were prepared for the programme.
Red light – Alabama is pausing a programme that would have used nearly $80 mln of federal funds to build EV infrastructure in the state over the next five years. The state’s Department of Economic and Community Affairs said it had paused the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure programme as of Jan. 28 in response to US President Trump’s Unleashing American Energy executive order, which pauses disbursements of clean energy spending. The state department also said it closed the application window for funding requests originally set to close in March.
Green light – Quebec’s environment ministry, MELCCFP, published on Thursday progress on its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standard as of Sep. 2024. As of the third quarter of 2024, 32.8% of light-duty vehicles sold were EVs, compared with 3.6% for the same period in 2018, when implementation of the ZEV standard began. The province has since gone further to ban all new internal combustion engine cars in 2035.
VOLUNTARY
Scope 3 reporting – Together for Sustainability (TfS), a global initiative launched by the chemical industry, released an updated version of its Product Carbon Footprint (PCF) Guideline earlier this month, with the aim of streamlining Scope 3 emissions calculations. “The 2024 update to the PCF Guideline brings essential clarity to definitions, methodological questions and data standards, particularly in areas like waste management, mass balance or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU), where there has previously been ambiguity,” said Peter Saling, director sustainability methods at BASF, who led the project. The chemical industry responsible for an estimated 7% of global GHG emissions, of which 77% are Scope 3, TfS said. TfS developed the guidelines to harmonise PCF calculation approaches across the industry, and calculate Scope 3 emissions but does not include a commitment to reduce those, a spokesperson said.
Digitalised credits – Northern Trust can now generate digital voluntary carbon credits in near real-time on The Northern Trust Carbon Ecosystem, it said in a release Thursday. The development is expected to streamline generation of verified carbon credits to enable more automation in the VCM. The Northern Trust Carbon Ecosystem can now receive data and record verified carbon credits in near real-time from participating providers, with the associated data attributes captured and stored on individual credits. These data attributes encompass precise measurements including CO2 capture flow rates, power consumed to capture the CO2, and parameters critical for robust verification and traceability such as when and where the carbon was captured. Northern Trust has been collaborating with data collection providers and project developers on this, including InceptionX, The Carbon Removers, and Mangrove Systems.
Carpooling credits – The Qatar-based Global Carbon Council (GCC) has opened a consultation on a new methodology to quantify emissions saving from private carpooling for long-distance inter-urban travel. Available for public inputs from Jan. 28 to Feb. 11, 2025, GCCM007: Methodology for Private Carpooling for Long-Distance Inter-Urban Travel applies to project activities that reduce low-occupancy vehicular trips by implementing a non-commercial carpooling platform. Emission reductions are calculated by comparing the GHG emissions of travelers (passengers, drivers, and co-drivers) who are using carpooling, to the GHG emissions of the same travelers’ alternative modes of transport that would have been chosen in the absence of the carpooling platform. Stakeholders are invited to provide feedback to refine the methodology’s impact for the carbon market.
INVESTMENT
ESG SOS – ESG fund managers are facing a major setback as investors pull record amounts from sustainable investment strategies, Bloomberg reports. Morningstar data shows that funds adhering to the EU’s strictest ESG standards suffered unprecedented outflows in the last quarter, continuing a broader trend of declining enthusiasm for ESG investing. The downturn is being driven by multiple factors: lacklustre returns, regulatory fatigue, and growing political pushback. Rising interest rates have particularly hit clean energy and climate-focused funds, with the S&P Global Clean Energy Index losing nearly half its value since 2022, while the broader S&P 500 rose by almost 30%. The regulatory landscape is also shifting. Europe, which holds over 80% of global ESG fund assets, is reassessing its ambitious framework, acknowledging the complexity of rapid implementation. The EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) is under review, with Germany and France pushing for scaled-back reporting requirements. Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority is set to enforce stricter ESG naming rules, prompting a wave of rebranding among funds. Investors are moving away from ESG funds at a rapid pace, with Morningstar finding that €7.3 bln was withdrawn from Europe’s highest-standard ESG funds (Article 9) in the last quarter of 2024, more than double the previous quarter’s outflows. Meanwhile, traditional (non-ESG) Article 6 funds saw €85.4 bln in inflows. Despite the downturn, some asset managers remain committed to ESG principles, stressing the need to adapt to regulatory changes. However, with more funds dropping ESG labels and regulatory adjustments on the horizon, the future of ESG investing appears increasingly uncertain.
AND FINALLY…
Deep trouble – Sharks and rays have roamed the oceans for 450 mln years, surviving mass extinctions. But today, over a third of species are at risk – this time, not from natural disasters but from human-driven threats like overfishing, habitat destruction, and accelerating climate change. A new study from the University of Vienna, published in Biology, reveals how sharks and rays have historically benefited from global warming thanks to rising sea levels expanding shallow water habitats, and warmer global temperatures increasing tropical and subtropical waters. This provided stable, year-round conditions, allowing sharks and rays to thrive in wider geographical areas without the disruption of extreme seasonal changes. However, while these factors were beneficial in the past, today’s climate change is happening too rapidly, the study warns, with the negative effects on track to far outweigh any short-term advantages.
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