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TOP STORY

POLL: Analysts slash EU carbon price forecasts as bearish factors continue to dominate

Analysts have slashed their forecasts for EU carbon allowance prices across the board, amid ongoing supply pressures and reduced demand from European power and industrial emitters.

CARBON FORWARD EXPO LONDON

Credit surplus will not hold back VCM 2.0, analysts say

The credit surplus in the voluntary carbon market (VCM) should not hold back price development and liquidity as the market reforms, analysts at Carbon Forward Expo London said on Thursday, suggesting a two-speed market could develop in the future.

VOLUNTARY

EXCLUSIVE: ACX moves voluntary carbon clearing house to Singapore from UAE

ACX has moved its clearing house to Singapore from Abu Dhabi to better deal with the ‘realities’ of the voluntary carbon market, the exchange operator told Carbon Pulse, as it unveils an updated trading platform.

INTERVIEW: CORSIA to provide basis for voluntary carbon growth but demand signal may take time

The UN’s international aviation offsetting scheme could provide the foundation for generating strong voluntary carbon trade and lead to much-needed standardisation in the market, but demand may take time to materialise and governments need to step in to send investors a clear signal, according to a carbon exchange CEO.

Responding to US govt challenge, another tech giant pledges tens of millions towards carbon removal projects

Another tech giant has signed up for the US government’s programme encouraging companies to invest in carbon removal projects, committing to spend tens of millions of dollars on the effort.

Small number of large deals keeps carbon removal market ticking higher in Q3

A handful of big purchases, mainly by Microsoft and Equinor, kept the needle moving upwards in the carbon removal (CDR) market in the third quarter, as overall volumes remained small and prices high.

INTERVIEW: Solar plus agri-waste presents opportunity for e-fuel market

A startup converting agricultural waste into syngas using solar energy for the production of carbon-neutral synthetic fuel described the technology as “low hanging fruit” for scaling up sustainable fuels for aviation and maritime.

Carbon removal platform certifies new biochar protocol with 1,000-year durability option

A carbon removal certification programme has approved a new biochar protocol with a durability option exceeding 1,000 years, along with another module focused on the technology.

Branching out: Overlooked tree data skews global forest carbon estimates, study finds

The exclusion of branch turnover from forest carbon accounting models has led to significant biases in estimates of global forest carbon sinks, a new study has found.

Partners launch “live” carbon removals marketplace

A “live” carbon removals marketplace was launched on Thursday in an effort to raise funding for the nascent technology.

ASIA PACIFIC

Researchers release yet another study damning Australia’s human-induced regeneration carbon credits

Another peer-reviewed paper has found “extreme levels of non-compliance” in Australian human-induced regeneration (HIR) projects, despite the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) continuing to claim the carbon credit scheme is sound.

Australia’s Clean Energy Regulator consults on ACCU registry, exchange

Australia’s Clean Energy Regulator has launched a consultation on its Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) registry and exchange currently in development.

CN Markets: CEAs hold firm amid growing demand, trading volumes surge

Prices in China’s CO2 allowance market remained above 100 yuan ($14.15) after the Golden Week holidays, with a surge in weekly trading volumes amid growing compliance demand.

Babies and boomers: Changes to China’s fertility, retirement policies threaten emissions goals

China’s efforts to address its aging population by relaxing fertility policies and delaying the retirement age could lead to a significant rise in the country’s carbon emissions, according to a new study.

Beijing to prioritise compliance use of locally created credits

Beijing will give priority to carbon credits generated within the region, allowing emitters to use more locally created units to offset part of their obligations under the local emissions trading scheme.

South Korea prepares for blue carbon trading programme, seaweed methodology

An affiliate under South Korea’s ocean ministry is preparing measures to increase the country’s blue carbon resources, with focus on the introduction of an offset programme and the cultivation of seaweeds.

Japan picks single project for JCM after advanced decarbonisation tech tender

Japan has decided to subsidise a single project to develop under the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) after issuing a tender earlier in the year calling for hydrogen or other advanced decarbonisation technologies not yet included in the scheme.

AMERICAS

BRIEFING: Carbon price levers, private sector mix in Chile’s all-in recipe for climate action

A range of carbon pricing measures and the private sector will come together in Chile’s market-led model of climate action, ministers said at the Chile Carbon Forum this week in Santiago.

US oil and gas industry continues to eye EOR for captured CO2 utilisation

US oil and gas industry members maintained their support for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) as a beneficial carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) solution, even as market forecasts indicate a shift towards dedicated geological storage, a conference heard this week.

California passes bill meant to prevent gas price hikes

The California State Senate passed a measure on Friday supported by Governor Gavin Newsom (D) intended to prevent spikes in fuel prices, despite concerns that a state agency will receive overly broad authority and savings at the pump won’t materialise for Californians.

Canada must harmonise carbon markets to reduce compliance costs, channel more decarbonisation investments -report

A Canadian research group published on Wednesday a report tracking carbon pricing in the nation, highlighting pathways to harmonise its nine industrial carbon markets, in order to remove inter-provincial trade barriers and reduce compliance costs.

CFTC: Investors pivot to V25 CCAs while traders trim RGGI, WCA exposure

Investors continue to build holdings in V25 California Carbon Allowance (CCA) holdings, reducing exposure in V24s, while traders cut RGGI Allowance (RGA) and Washington Carbon Allowance (WCA) net length over the last week, according to data released Friday from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

EMEA

EU publishes draft rules for tracing renewable and recycled carbon fuels

The European Commission has issued draft rules establishing a Union database to ensure only certified green fuels are counted for the achievement of EU decarbonisation targets, while avoiding any risk of fraud or double counting.

PREVIEW: EU’s new climate policy duo to face Parliament grilling

The two new EU commissioners-designate responsible for climate policy are preparing for a high-stake confirmation hearing in the European Parliament next month, amid a dispute between political groups over the timing of the interviews.

Denmark publishes national biochar strategy as it looks to meet carbon negative target

Denmark has published a national biochar strategy that outlines how the government plans to use the carbon removal process to meet its climate neutral 2045 target, and 2050 carbon negative target.

Euro Markets: EUAs ease back on gas but lock in 4% weekly gain

European carbon prices corrected lower for much of Friday on easing gas prices, coming in the wake of two bullish sessions with multiple participants citing the influence of a London conference in boosting sentiment, as the market secured a 4% weekly rise.

EU transport faces major hurdles in decarbonisation efforts, EEA warns

The European Environment Agency (EEA) this week warned that Europe’s efforts to decarbonise its transport sector face significant challenges, particularly in aviation and maritime transport, despite progress in reducing emissions in other areas.

INTERNATIONAL

Europe trailing behind China, US in global net-zero industrial race -report

Europe’s position in the global net-zero industrial race is at risk due to the US economic dominance and China’s ambition to become the world’s clean tech hub, a pan-European climate think-tank has warned.

AVIATION/SHIPPING

Shipping carbon tax could broadside African economies, report warns

A shipping carbon tax being floated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) could have disproportionate economic impacts on African countries, a new report warns.

BIODIVERSITY (FREE TO READ)

INTERVIEW: Species protection index can lay solid foundations for biodiversity markets

The Species Protection Index (SPI), among the indicators of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), could have a crucial role in building the foundations of the nascent biodiversity credit market, its developers told Carbon Pulse.

Environment Bank partners with Barclays to sell BNG units

UK-headquartered conservation company Environment Bank has partnered with Barclays bank to hasten the biodiversity net gain (BNG) policy uptake among England-based farmers and house builders.

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EVENTS

City & Financial Global’s International Carbon Markets Summit – Oct. 14, London/Online: The summit will bring together global leaders, policymakers, and industry experts to discuss the latest developments and the future direction of both the compliance and voluntary carbon markets. With London positioned as a key global hub, the event will highlight the UK’s ambitious climate strategy and its pivotal role in driving international carbon market initiatives. Attendees will gain valuable insights into the evolving landscape of carbon markets, including the impact of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the latest trends shaping the industry. The summit will also explore the evolving roles that financial institutions and debt finance play in supporting carbon projects, as well as the importance of standardising contracts and documentation in voluntary carbon markets. Register with code CAR3CP for a 20% discount.

Calyx Webinar – How to buy high-quality carbon credits – Nov. 6, 1100 EST (1600 GMT): Buying quality carbon credits in today’s carbon market can feel like an obstacle course full of hurdles and roadblocks, but despite challenges, many sustainability leaders have done this successfully. We gathered experienced carbon market participants from across industries to share their processes, advice and secrets to success. If you’re purchasing carbon credits in the next six months, this is a discussion you won’t want to miss. Register here. If you register but cannot attend live, you will receive an on-demand recording after the webinar.

cCarbon’s Canada Clean Fuels and Carbon Markets Summit 2024 – Nov. 7, Toronto: Canada’s clean fuels and carbon markets face significant uncertainty as policy, regulatory, and market dynamics evolve. To provide clarity, cCarbon is hosting modeling-driven Canada Clean Fuels and Carbon Markets Summit in Toronto for businesses and investors navigating this landscape. The event will begin with a plenary session focused on policy, followed by two specialized tracks exploring clean fuels and carbon markets in depth. With over 40 experts sharing insights and nearly 200 business leaders and regulators in attendance, this summit offers an exceptional networking and learning opportunity for anyone interested in Canadian energy and environmental markets! Find out more

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Premium job listings

• Business Development, Carbon Markets (Market Intelligence), RepuTex Energy – Melbourne
• Carbon NBS Specialist/Manager, NatureCo – Australia/Asia Pacific/Worldwide

See all listings or post a job

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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD

INTERNATIONAL

Long way to go – The world is far off meeting the goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 set at COP28 despite “record” growth last year, according to the first official review of the global commitment. Current national plans and targets would only deliver half of the required growth in renewable power by decade-end, according to an assessment by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released Friday. Except for solar power, planned capacity additions for all other renewables are below the level required to meet the target of tripling renewables to 11.2 terawatts by 2030, and without ratcheting up, they would fall 34% short of that goal. A “record” 473 GW of renewable power capacity was added globally in 2023, but the growth rate remains insufficient and needs to climb to 16.4% a year to meet the 2030 target. Annual investments in renewables are just over a third of the $1.5 trillion needed each year until 2030, despite reaching a record high of $570 bln in 2023, while 84% of the investment last year was concentrated in China, the EU, and the US. (Climate Home News)

EMEA

Tap the brakes – Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has expressed concerns about the impact of EU carbon emission regulations, stating they increase costs by 40% for car manufacturers at a time when consumers are hesitant to buy expensive electric vehicles (EVs). Speaking to Reuters, he noted additional pressure from Chinese competition, which benefits from a 30% cost advantage. Tavares highlighted that energy costs in Italy are particularly high, double those in Spain, which puts Stellantis at a disadvantage. Stellantis suppliers, many of whom are small businesses, will need to share the burden of cost-cutting efforts. Although Tavares believes that the current market can’t absorb EVs unless they are priced similarly to petrol cars, he did not call for changes to EU carbon emission rules. Instead, he requested regulatory stability and emphasised the need for state-backed incentives to support EV demand. Italy has criticised Stellantis for its declining production, with the company’s Italian output projected to fall below 500,000 vehicles this year, down from 751,000 in 2023.

CCS risks – Germany’s reform plans to allow the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies should be restricted to emissions that are impossible to avoid with today’s technologies, such as process emissions from cement production, said the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU). It pointed to the potential environmental risks of the technology, high energy requirements, use of onshore and offshore land, and the high maintenance and monitoring costs of the infrastructure. The SRU criticized the coalition government’s draft legislation for allowing the wide use of CCS, only restricting it in regards to coal plants. The main goal should still be to avoid emissions in the first place, and too much focus on the potential of CCS could lessen pressure on industry to decarbonise, it said. Parliament is currently negotiating the reform of Germany’s carbon storage law.

Green momentum – Investment pledges by Iberdrola and Orsted were among the more than £24 bln of new private investment set out to be spent on the UK’s energy transition ahead of a meeting between green energy companies and Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday. The single-largest investment was by Spain’s Iberdrola, which has promised to double its planned investments in UK clean energy to £24 bln over the next four years. Denmark’s Orsted has committed to spend £8 bln on offshore wind alongside Greenvolt, while Macquarie has pledged £1.3 bln to the Island Green Power solar farm in Norfolk and EV charging points, and US nuclear firm Holtec plans to invest £325 mln in a Yorkshire factory to supply UK nuclear projects. There was also a £300 mln investment set out by BW Group for a new battery energy storage project in Birmingham and £225 mln from offshore wind foundation maker SeAH Wind to a manufacturing base in the northeast. The investments come ahead of the International Investment Summit being held in London on Oct. 14 and demonstrates a vote of confidence in UK growth, said the government.

Luxembourg decarbonises too – The EU Commission approved two Luxembourgish State aid schemes with a total budget of €520 mln, to help manufacturing companies currently relying on fossil fuels. To be eligible, projects must enable reduction of GHG emissions of the industrial installations concerned by at least 40% compared to the situation before the aid by means of electrification of their production processes. The scheme will support investments for the production of batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, heat-pumps, electrolysers, equipment for carbon capture usage and storage, as well as key components designed and primarily used as direct input for the production of such equipment or related critical raw materials necessary for their production.

ASIA PACIFIC

Data ahoy – China is increasing scrutiny on the shipping industry by requesting some overseas shipowners to report carbon emissions for voyages servicing local ports, Bloomberg reports. The move aligns with the global shift towards emissions regulation, following the EU’s introduction of a carbon levy for ships. China’s effort could be a precursor to including shipping in its emissions-trading system, which currently applies to sectors like power utilities, steel, and cement. This comes as China, a major player in global shipping and the world’s largest crude importer, seeks to meet its net zero pledge by 2060. In March, China established its first shipping carbon emissions management agency in Shanghai. The new measures could force shipowners to account for emissions costs, affecting global maritime economics, especially as most ships still rely on cheaper, oil-based fuels. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is working on a global emissions regime for shipping, but progress has been slow. China’s actions may be intended to pressure the IMO or to keep pace with the EU’s regulatory measures. China’s shipyards have also been leading in the development of cleaner-fuel vessels, with 70% of global orders for ships running on LNG, methanol, and liquefied ammonia coming from China.

IKEA investments – Ingka Investments, the owner of retail chain IKEA, increased its equity in the A$4 bln Golden Plains wind project in Victoria, Australia, Renew Economy reported. The owner of the 1.33 GW project, TagEnergy, announced another investment Friday by Ingka, which has already taken a 15% equity stake in the 756 MW first stage, and will now do the same with the 577 MW second stage which is also under construction. Ingka will use its stake in the project, and the share of output that it will claim, to reduce its climate footprint. All stages of the Golden Plains project are expected to be complete in 2027, and it is currently the largest onshore wind project in the world for turbine manufacturer Vestas, featuring 215 of its turbines.

Rendezvous – A World Bank Mission has met the provincial government of Punjab in Pakistan to explore opportunities for the development of carbon markets, the Dawn reported. The WB specialist stressed that the country’s natural resources should be harnessed, developed, and conserved to offset emissions and bolster economic growth, aligning with both national and global net zero objectives. The meeting participants also reviewed the ongoing and upcoming Annual Development Programme (ADP) schemes, as well as World Bank-financed projects, to assess their potential for generating carbon credits. Meanwhile, the provincial government announced that a Climate Finance Unit (CFU) will be established in the coming weeks that would focus on carbon credit financing and provide comprehensive support to government departments.

New business model – Taipei-listed Shinfox Energy has won government contracts to create forest-based offsets on around 72 hectares of state-owned land in Chishang township through its forest management subsidiary, according to Liberty Times. Shinfox aims to rent 1,000 ha of state-owned land to pursue similar projects. The government has said it plans to utilise idle public lands to generate forest carbon credits for the development of a new business model that engages more domestic companies.

AMERICAS

New partnership – Project certification standard Cercarbono and carbon market association Asocarbono Ecuador have partnered to promote and strengthen carbon and biodiversity markets in Ecuador, according to a press release. The two companies plan to collaborate on events, projects, and activities that support Ecuador’s sustainability goals. The South American country has a robust regulatory framework, including the Climate Change Law and the Environmental Management Law, which aligns with global climate goals and encourages investment in environmental initiatives, according to the press release. Columbia-based Cercarbono has registered over 200 projects across more than 15 countries.

Cocoa farming – Project developer Fronterra has partnered with cacao, coffee, and cotton producer ECOM to develop grouped conservation and carbon projects in the Peruvian Amazon, with a focus on sustainable agroforestry and zero-deforestation cocoa farming. The initiative aims to restore degraded lands, enhance local farmers’ productivity, and protect native communities’ territorial rights through improved surveillance and formal land tenure, according to a social media post. The collaboration will also work to strengthen community governance to enable sustainable resource management, with a broader goal of supporting regional nature-based solutions and climate resilience across Latin America, Fronterra said on LinkedIn.

EJ power plant concern – The White House Environmental Justice Advisory Committee published previously adopted recommendations earlier this month calling for excluding CCS and hydrogen co-firing out of upcoming US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) draft rules for existing natural gas-fired power plants. Emissions standards for such facilities were excluded from the EPA’s suite of standards finalised in April. If this request is denied in the EPA rules, the EJ committee suggested that cumulative impacts analysis should be used to determine if either methodology would increase power plant-related GHG co-pollutant emissions in EJ communities. Other recommendations made by the committee included those related to: heightened disclosure of information from CCS, DAC, and BECCS projects; clearer and stronger regulatory requirements for these projects; suspension of Class VI permits and delegation of primacy authority to states pending until confirmation that projects and states are in compliance with all regulations and requirements; and heightened mandates for public engagement and community benefits for federally funded carbon management projects. On Thursday, the US Department of Energy released a draft of its annual carbon management programme strategy to show its pathways for deploying CO2 capture, transportation, conversion, and storage technology, as the agency looks toward allocating the remaining funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

Onward ho – A lawsuit against the fossil fuel industry over the effects of climate change, filed by the state of California and eight in-state local governments, will proceed in court following a decision by Judge Ethan Schulman of the Superior Court of San Francisco County on Tuesday, E&E News reported. The ruling quashed defendants’ efforts to dismiss the lawsuit. The state and local governments are seeking a decision that will require the fossil fuel industry to establish and contribute to a fund that will abate their impacts, as well as compensatory damages and other forms of relief. The decision follows a recent request from SCOTUS for the US Solicitor General to comment on the merit of similar fossil fuel lawsuits, of which the industry and conservative states are attempting to stifle.

VOLUNTARY

Risky business – Carbon offset intelligence provider AlliedOffsets has introduced a ‘Letter of Authorisation risk score’, which is a metric that assesses the steps taken by carbon crediting stakeholders to mitigate non-delivery risk from revocations. Targeted specifically at investments in CORSIA eligible credits – which run the risk of being disqualified if disqualified if the host country also counts them toward its NDC – the score assesses 10 indicators across three broader categories: insurance clarity, registry mitigation risk score, and country regulation risk.

New JV – Connecticut-based CDR startup BluSky Carbon and Texas-based Red Mountain Biochar have entered into a joint venture (JV) called BluMountain Carbon, according to a Friday press release. The JV is intended to commercialise potential biochar offtake and project financing opportunities with a particular emphasis on the southern US. JV activities will be funded on a 50/50 basis, with neither party committing to any certain activities, and the JV builds on a pre-existing contractual partnership between the two companies.

Cross-border CCS – Sumitomo Corporation, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, and Hilcorp Alaska have agreed to conduct a CCS feasibility study in the US state. The study will involve the three companies investigating a feasibility for aiming at building a CCS value chain in which CO2 is aggregated in Japan, transported by large liquefied CO2 vessels to Alaska for sequestration/storage. The partners said they aim to commercialise cross-border CCS in cooperation with the Japanese and US governments. In August, Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) signed the state’s first CCUS bill into law outlining Alaska’s authority over projects as well as permit requirements, fees, and public hearings required of operators.

SCIENCE & TECH

Eye in the sky – NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the non-profit Carbon Mapper have shared the first methane and CO2 detections from the Tanager-1 satellite, highlighting significant emissions in Pakistan, Texas, and South Africa. The data is part of Carbon Mapper’s mission to track and make actionable GHG emissions from specific sources globally. Launched in Aug. 2023 and built by Planet Labs PBC, Tanager-1 uses a high-tech imaging spectrometer to detect GHGs. The first images reveal methane plumes from a landfill in Karachi, and from the Permian Basin in Texas, as well as a CO2 plume from a coal plant in South Africa. Once fully operational, Tanager-1 will scan large areas daily, with its data available via Carbon Mapper’s portal. The non-profit aims to provide precise, timely emissions data to inform decision-making. The project is supported by public and private partnerships, including Planet Labs, JPL, and various philanthropic donors.

AND FINALLY…

Exploding EVs – First responders in Florida are dealing with a new phenomenon following the onset of hurricanes Helen and Milton – exploding EV batteries. The lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles and e-bikes are at risk of bursting into flames when exposed to saltwater from storm surges, Grist reported Friday. Firefighters said that the problem has expanded as EVs have become more popular, particularly as the fires are difficult to extinguish. Lithium-ion batteries generate their own heat and oxygen when they are on fire and large volumes of water are needed in order to reduce the heat. There have been 48 confirmed battery fires related to storm surge from Hurricane Helene, 11 of them associated with EVs, although the numbers are not yet clear following Hurricane Milton. Less than one-third of the 1.2 million firefighters in the country have completed the International Association of Fire Chiefs’ training to respond to EV fires.

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