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TOP STORY

US EPA takes wrecking ball to environmental regulation

The administrator of the US EPA announced Wednesday the rollback of 31 regulatory actions, reversing core foundations of the nation’s environmental policy crafted under prior administrations.

CERAWEEK

Texas DAC developer shifts focus to EOR from geologic sequestration

A Texas-based oil and gas producer developing what is slated to be one of the largest direct air capture (DAC) facilities in the world signalled this week that it will be shifting the focus of its CO2 removals business to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations from geologic storage in an effort to produce “net zero oil”.

Global energy tech company advancing plans to develop commercial DAC system

A global energy technology company is edging closer to developing a fully-integrated, commercial-scale direct air capture (DAC) facility after fine-tuning its carbon capture technology, a company executive told Carbon Pulse.

Global carbon accounting approach could help drive decarbonisation, energy experts say

The establishment of a global carbon accounting approach would help spur significant global emissions reductions if adopted in key sectors and markets, energy sector representatives said Wednesday at CERAWeek.

Industry should engage NGOs to scale clean energy in US -panellists

Fossil fuels industry should collaborate more closely with NGOs to help ensure acceptance of low-carbon energy projects – including carbon capture and storage (CCS) – amidst a shift in the US political paradigm, panellists said Wednesday at CERAWeek.

Major businesses back call to treble nuclear capacity by 2050

A group of cross-industry major businesses have signed a pledge supporting a tripling of nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

AMERICAS

Washington’s Q1 auction results lift secondary market prices

Washington’s first quarterly current vintage auction for 2025 settled at the higher end of market expectations, boosting secondary market prices as it steered clear of the threshold required to trigger a reserve sale.

WCI Markets: CCAs slammed after ARB quietly shifts goalposts for ETS updates on website

California Carbon Allowances (CCA) in the secondary market sold off after hours Wednesday in response to cap-and-trade programme regulator ARB quietly shifting the goalposts of completing proposed ETS updates on their website without an official notice to participants.

ARB resumes offset issuance over latest two-week cycle

California regulator ARB granted new compliance-grade offsets over the recent two-week period after not issuing credits for two reporting periods this year, data published by the state regulator ARB Wednesday showed.

West Virginia lawmakers seek to tighten oversight of forest carbon offset projects

Republican lawmakers in West Virginia introduced new legislation on Monday that could bring stricter regulatory oversight to forest-based carbon offset projects in the state.

Canadian firms urged to buy domestic offsets as voluntary market dragged into North American trade war

Canadian businesses are being urged to prioritise purchasing domestic offsets in an effort to reduce the outflow of funds to the US voluntary carbon market amid President Donald Trump’s trade war against Canada.

US MRV firm launches interactive SOC map

Stakeholders interested in soil organic carbon (SOC) can now access a bird’s eye view of worldwide soil health thanks to a new tool from a specialised measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) firm out of the US.

Google funds regenerative farming project to boost US water conservation

A new regenerative agriculture initiative funded by Google aims to replenish nearly 1.5 billion gallons (5.7 bln litres) of water in Oklahoma over the next seven years by encouraging farmers to adopt practices that enhance soil moisture and drought resilience.

Fast expanding Bolivian biochar producer signs sole distribution rights to CDR marketplace

A Bolivian biochar producer, the largest in the world, has struck a deal to expand its supply to a platform provider to around 130,000 credits this year.

Chile seeks public input to draft peatland protection regulations

The Chilean Ministry of Environment last week opened its peatlands protection law for public consultation, aiming to produce concrete regulations by 2026, according to the country’s official gazette.

Road to Belem: Highway project to COP30 cuts through Amazon rainforest

A new 13-km (8-mile) four-lane highway on the perimeter of Brazil’s Belem is cutting through protected Amazon rainforest to accommodate traffic for this year’s COP30 climate, according to media reports.

EMEA

FEATURE: Bulgaria’s coal phaseout faces “irrational opposition” to an “inevitable process”

Bulgaria’s coal industry is on a path of gradual decline, but while market forces are pushing for an exit, political hesitancy and social concerns are delaying the “inevitable”, experts have told Carbon Pulse.

Green groups call for ‘lending facility’ funded by ETS2 revenues

A coalition of 29 environmental and business groups have called for a lending facility to be established under the upcoming EU Emissions Trading System for road transport and buildings (ETS2) in order to help EU countries finance clean heating and mobility solutions for low-income households.

EU Parliament and member states debate plans to delay CO2 fines for carmakers

The European Commission’s proposed plan for the automotive sector failed to fully convince EU legislators, who engaged in two polarised debates on Wednesday about the future of the sector, which is struggling with its transition to zero-emission vehicles.

EU member states back proposed delay to green corporate reporting rules

EU countries expressed overwhelming support for the European Commission’s proposal to reduce and simplify environmental reporting requirements on companies during a public debate on Wednesday in the Council of EU member states.

Euro Markets: “Rage against the machines” as headline triggers UKA spike and short squeeze in EUAs

EU carbon prices ended Wednesday in the grip of a major price spike, as a news report reiterating that UK-EU market linking was under “serious consideration” caused UKA prices to leap as much as 11%, and triggered a rally in EUAs which in turn led traders to squeeze short positions held by algorithmic traders.

CBAM could cause Ukraine losses of $2.7 billion in investment -study

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could lead to a loss of $2.7 billion of investment for Ukraine between now and 2030, according to a study by a Ukrainian-based consulting company published on Wednesday.

Nordics hobbled by EU on Article 6 trade in carbon removal credits -study

Finland and Sweden have huge potential to generate carbon removal credits using forest-based biomass, but their ability to engage in international trades under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is currently hampered by limitations in EU law, according to new research.

Africa’s first regenerative farming project issues Verra certified credits

A regenerative farming project has become the first to issue credits using Verra’s VM0042 methodology in Africa, according to a statement released Wednesday.

RWE and TotalEnergies strike green hydrogen deal to cut 300k tonnes of CO2 annually

Energy utility RWE said Wednesday it will supply TotalEnergies’ German refinery with 30,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year from 2030 under a 15-year deal, a move expected to cut 300,000 tonnes of CO2 annually.

US tariffs risk decimating EU steel and aluminium production, industry groups warn

US tariffs entering into force this week will reduce export opportunities for EU steel and aluminium producers, and risk diminishing an already faltering production in Europe, the industry has said, with possible repercussions on demand for EU carbon allowances.

UK CDR hub awards five storage projects in third funding round

A UK-based carbon removal (CDR) programme has selected five permanent carbon storage projects for grants of up to £75,000 each as part of its latest funding round.

Two proposed Tanzanian soil carbon projects face land grabbing claims

Two proposed soil carbon projects in Tanzania could be derailed by Indigenous peoples after a pressure group called for a five-year moratorium on development, claiming the Maasai communities fear the carbon credit business will lead to land grabbing.

Trio of organisations launch initiative to generate carbon credits from African cotton farming

A trio of organisations has launched a project to introduce voluntary carbon credits in cotton farming, aiming to boost income for African smallholder farmers while promoting sustainable agriculture.

ASIA PACIFIC

ANALYSIS: Green crediting scheme taken to India’s Supreme Court, as govt advances plantation drive

Two environmental groups have filed a petition in the Supreme Court of India challenging the country’s Green Credit Programme (GCP), which they claim is expected to wreak havoc on the country’s natural ecosystems.

Australian regulator extends carbon abatement contract delivery deadline

Australia’s Clean Energy Regulator has agreed to reschedule the delivery deadline for carbon abatement contracts (CACs) to the end of the calendar year, as it waits on the government to decide future exit window arrangements.

AU Market: ACCU market in a holding pattern, Feb. cancellations doubles

The Australian carbon market has trended downward as participants remain on tenterhooks ahead of the upcoming election, and lack of compliance demand keeps trading activity at middling to subdued levels.

Carbon insurer expands into Australia

A UK-based carbon insurance provider active in the voluntary and Paris Agreement Article 6 markets announced on Wednesday it is now authorised to insure companies in Australia.

NZ methane target review risks confusion for emissions accounting

The New Zealand government risks causing confusion should it decide to change how it accounts for methane emissions, an environmental group has warned.

University of Guam looks to Gold Standard to bolster tree-planting efforts

The University of Guam (UOG) is seeking certification with the Gold Standard for its tree planting efforts in the south of the Pacific island.

China’s Guangdong cuts free allocation to industrial emitters under regional ETS

China’s Guangdong province will reduce the free allocation of CO2 permits to industrial emitters regulated under its emissions trading scheme, as it seeks to further strengthen the operation of the regional carbon market.

More efficient CO2 capture seen as key to scale CCS industry

More attention must be paid to capturing post-combustion carbon streams with low CO2 concentrations if the world is to hit climate targets and scale the carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry, a Perth conference heard this week.

SK Market: March CO2 auction oversubscribed, clears at 9,100 won

South Korea’s latest monthly CO2 permit auction on Wednesday was oversubscribed, though analysts remained cautious about the market outlook as more regulatory clarity may only be provided around mid-year.

Environmental group slams rising emissions from Japanese carmakers

Rising emissions from Japanese car manufacturers risk undermining global efforts to reach net zero, said an environmental group – with one firm’s 2023 emissions the equivalent of 1.5% of global CO2 emissions.

INTERNATIONAL

Net-Zero Banking Alliance looks to loosen climate commitments amid widespread departures

The world’s largest alliance of banks committed to reaching net zero emissions is set to vote on whether to walk back on its promises, following the departure of US banks after President Donald Trump’s election, the Financial Times reported.

VOLUNTARY

INTERVIEW: Interactive map platform to help decarbonise agribusiness launches

A Swiss startup on Wednesday launched a free web platform that leverages publicly available geospatial data to create interactive, high-resolution maps of land use change emissions factors, aiming to help decarbonise agribusiness in line with GHG Protocol and Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) guidelines.

Ability to invest in carbon projects and buy credits would help VCM scale -JPMorgan

Creating opportunities to invest in carbon projects and credits would help the voluntary carbon market (VCM) to scale, though most projects are too early stage for large banks to invest in currently and come with significant risks and liabilities, according to a senior executive at JPMorgan.

Ireland makes €15 mln donation to Brazilian REDD+ fund

Ireland on Wednesday announced a commitment to donate €15 million to the world’s largest initiative to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

Aramco Ventures backs startup Ucaneo to scale DAC tech

Berlin-based direct air capture (DAC) startup Ucaneo has secured investment from Aramco Ventures, the venture capital arm of Aramco, to advance its technology.

US scientists pave new path for CO2 utilisation

Scientists have discovered a new method of transforming CO2 into valuable products, according to new research.

Boom in CDR interest risks overshadowing other carbon projects, warns expert

Growing interest in carbon removal credits in recent months should not come at the expense of investments in avoidance or anti-deforestation activities that also require financing, according to a carbon offsetting specialist.

Annual biochar can halve emissions from rice paddies, outperforming one-off uses -report

Applying biochar annually to rice paddies can deliver greater long-term CO2 emissions reductions and economic benefits than a traditional one-time application, an eight-year study has found.

Top 20 global food retailers fail to set methane reduction targets -report

None of the world’s top 20 food retailers have set methane reduction targets or are reporting their emissions, a report released Thursday has found.

BIODIVERSITY (FREE TO READ)

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Poor wastewater treatment flushes billions of dollars away, report says

Poor wastewater treatment costs economies billions of dollars annually in marine environmental, agricultural, and healthcare costs, said a report published on Wednesday.

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NEW REPORT

How offtake agreements are shaping the future of biochar: Long-term offtake agreements are transforming the biochar carbon removal market — securing supply, stabilizing prices, and providing financial certainty. Supercritical’s latest report, Locked in or Left Behind?, explores key shifts in procurement strategies and what they mean for the future of carbon removal. With 62% of high-quality biochar credits for 2025 already committed and prices rising 18% in 2024, securing an offtake could be the key to guaranteeing supply and price stability.

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EVENTS

Insurance in a Changing World – Mar. 13, London – The Conduit hosts an exclusive, full-day conference bringing together leaders in business, policy, and economics. In uncertain times, discover cutting-edge public-private insurance solutions driving global innovation and resilience. From rethinking risk management to unlocking opportunities in emerging economies, this is your chance to connect, collaborate, and shape a greener future. Spaces are limited – learn more and secure your place.

North American Carbon World (NACW) – Mar. 25-27, Los Angeles – The annual NACW conference addresses the most pressing issues in climate policy and carbon markets to the largest gathering of climate professionals in North America. NACW 2025 will dive into major new policies and developments that will shape and scale carbon markets and climate solutions with integrity and ambition. In addition to outstanding speakers, discussions, and insights, NACW provides premier networking opportunities with an active and engaged audience of carbon professionals. Join us for the content, community, and connections for successfully navigating the low-carbon landscape and advancing market-based climate solutions. www.nacwconference.com

European Climate Summit – Apr. 1-3, Lisbon – To kick off our Annual Regional Climate Summit Series of this year, we at IETA look forward to welcoming delegates this Spring to our flagship European Climate Summit (ECS) 2025, taking place at the Pavilhao Carlos Lopes. ECS will take place amid a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, even as carbon markets in the EU and globally continue to mature and expand. A new political cycle for EU climate action has begun, and the task of preparing carbon markets for their next stage presents both new challenges and opportunities. In this dynamic context, competitiveness, integrity, and innovation will be at the heart of our discussion. Be part of the conversation driving the next phase of carbon market evolution. Join us at ECS to engage with policymakers, business leaders, and climate market pioneers who are shaping the future of carbon markets. Organised by IETA, ECS is an in-person event. Register

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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD

INTERNATIONAL

Post-COP29 fight – India and Azerbaijan traded barbs on Wednesday over the handling of the COP29 climate summit in Baku last November, with officials in New Dehli accusing the presidency of gavelling an agreement on international climate finance despite objections from developing countries. India protested in November against what it described as a “stage-managed” deal in Baku on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for international climate finance. “Member of the Indian delegation had already made it clear what they objected to in their interjection. They had asked for the floor before the decision was gavelled,” an Indian source told the Hindustan Times. Those accusations were rejected by Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator for COP29, who said no formal objections were raised before the decision was taken at the final plenary. “We have not seen any party until the last moment and even after the adoption (of NCQG decision) that wanted to object the decision,” he said in an interview. “During the whole two weeks, all countries and all negotiating groups including those representing developing countries have taken part in focused group decisions, every single party had the opportunity to be heard,” he insisted.

IPCC seeks authors – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has opened nominations for experts to contribute to its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) as coordinating lead authors, lead authors, or review editors. The call follows the adoption of the AR7 outlines during the IPCC’s 62nd Session in Hangzhou, China. Author teams will draft and refine the three Working Group contributions, covering climate science, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation. The IPCC aims to attract a diverse mix of experts, including early-career researchers. Nominations must be submitted by governments, observer organisations, or IPCC Bureau Members by Apr. 17.

EMEA

Late plans – Five EU countries received a formal warning today from the European Commission for failing to send their final updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) on time. Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Poland, and Slovakia received “reasoned opinions” for failing to make the June 30 deadline set out  in the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. 13 EU countries were reprimanded in November, and only five plans are now missing, the Commission said. The five EU member states now have two months to remedy the situation and submit their final updated NECPs to the Commission. Otherwise, the EU executive may decide to refer the cases to the Court of Justice of the European Union, it said.  

Bankrupt – Europe’s leading battery maker Northvolt filed for bankruptcy in Sweden on Wednesday, dealing a blow to the EU’s bid to rival with China, the FT reports. The Swedish battery manufacturer said it had been unable to secure financing to continue, despite receiving more than €1 bln in financing from the European Investment Bank (EIB) in January last year to expand its gigafactory in Skelleftea in Northern Sweden. A court-appointed trustee will now be nominated to sell the company’s assets. Northvolt had already filed for bankruptcy in the US in November but had spent recent months trying to secure financing for its Swedish plant in Skelleftea. The company’s planned Canadian and German factories are not part of the bankruptcy.

152-year low – The UK’s GHG emissions fell by 3.6% in 2024 to to 371 Mt of CO2e, their lowest level since 1872, according to analysis by Carbon Brief based on preliminary government data. The decline was largely driven by the closures of the UK’s last coal-fired power station – bringing coal use down to its lowest level since 1666 – and one of its last blast furnaces at the Port Talbot steelworks. The nearly-40% rise in the number of electric vehicles on the road, and above-average temperatures, also helped make British power the cleanest it’s ever been. The country’s emissions are now 54% below 1990 levels, while GDP has grown by 84%.

GORD + ACI – The Gulf Organisation for Research & Development (GORD) and the American Concrete Institute (ACI) have signed an MoU to promote sustainability and climate mitigation in the concrete industry. The collaboration will focus on capacity building, training, and the promotion of sustainable innovations, including standardised certifications and sustainability assessments such as GORD’s International Green Mark (IGM). The agreement also includes joint research initiatives aimed at developing solutions for sustainable cities and communities. A key aspect of the partnership is the exploration of innovative methods to reduce the environmental impact of concrete manufacturing. GORD’s affiliate, the Global Carbon Council (GCC), will contribute expertise in carbon markets and methodologies that incentivise emissions reductions. Additionally, the MoU outlines plans for promoting ACI’s technical and educational resources, introducing industry awards, and supporting conferences to advance sustainability in construction. GORD will also support the local ACI chapter to enhance regional sustainable practices.

Middle East transition – Consulting and engineering firm Wood is launching a centre for technical, strategic, and energy transition solutions in Abu Dhabi, for clients in the Middle East looking to diversify energy supply and pursue net zero emissions, Wood announced on Wednesday. The energy transition hub will including technical experts who specialise in carbon advisory, renewable energy and power, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and decarbonisation at large. Wood’s move comes as capital project investment in clean energy in the Middle East is expected to triple within the next five years, with regional goals set in the UAE Net Zero 2050 and Saudi Vision 2030 plans, it said.

Net zero farm fund – UK supermarket Waitrose has unveiled a £500,000 fund to help its British farmers adopt low-carbon farming practices. Part of the retailer’s Farming for Nature programme, the initiative will provide grants to suppliers and producers to cut emissions and boost climate resilience. The funding can support projects ranging from rainwater capture systems to low-carbon heating and soil-friendly machinery. Waitrose aims to achieve net zero across its UK farms by 2035 and its entire supply chain by 2050.

Call to action – The EU Carbon Farming Summit, held in Dublin, concluded Wednesday with a call to action for scaling up regenerative agriculture practices across Europe. The summit convened over 500 stakeholders to address the need for sustainable solutions in the face of soil degradation, climate vulnerability, and the challenges faced by farmers and agrifood companies. Discussions centered on innovative financing, value creation, and leading practices that foster climate-resilient agrifood systems.

ASIA PACIFIC

Investment showcase – The New Zealand government is hosting a summit Thursday and Friday for investors in a bid to attract capital for infrastructure growth, including in renewables and clean technologies. Companies with an estimated NZD 6 trillion ($3.4 trillion) of assets under management will be attending the Infrastructure Investment Summit in Auckland, where the government will be presenting its pipeline of projects across the economy to pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and major banks. An ex-SolarZero employee has called for safeguards on foreign investment in the country, Newsroom reports, following the sudden liquidation of the clean energy firm late last year by BlackRock – a representative of which will be attending the summit.

Methanol standard – Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub for shipping, recently launched a new standard for methanol to boost the industry’s confidence in using the alternate fuel. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore and Enterprise Singapore introduced the standard to ensure safe and efficient use of methanol as a marine fuel. Singapore previously launched what it claimed to be the world’s first ship-to-container ship methanol bunkering in 2023 and the first simultaneous methanol bunkering and cargo operations in 2024. Methanol is gaining traction as a cleaner alternative to traditional marine fuels, producing lower emissions.

CCS player pick a big fish – A partnership of some of Australia’s smaller carbon capture and storage (CCS) hopefuls that earned an offshore greenhouse gas storage permit from the Commonwealth last year has appointed services giant Halliburton the full scope of the CCS Declaration of Storage Project with plans to be operating at commercial scale by the end of the decade. InCapture and SK earthon said Wednesday Halliburton will  assess and appraise potential storage solutions from across the G-15-AP area and progress high-graded opportunities through major regulatory processes. The permit is in Australia’s North Carnarvon Basin, a well known oil and gas province off the coast of the far north of the country. It is one of 15 handed out by the government in recent years. 

New partner – ByWill, which aims to promote carbon neutrality in all 47 prefectures of Japan, has signed a collaboration agreement with Fukui prefecture’s Sakai City and Fukui Television Broadcasting for the creation of environmental value, it announced Wednesday. They will consider the methodologies for creating domestically issued J-Credits, starting with the introduction of LEDs, the statement said.

Market entry – South Korea’s Samsung E&A on Wednesday announced its entry into the green hydrogen market through the acquisition of equity in Norwegian hydrogen company Nel ASA. The Korean engineering firm said it acquired a 9.1% stake in Nel ASA for around $33 mln, and a strategic partnership agreement has been signed between the two companies.

AMERICAS

Pipeline paused – Summit Carbon Solutions (SCS), an Iowa-based company developing a $9 bln CO2 pipeline, has requested a pause in the schedule for its South Dakota permit application. The company cited recently passed HB 1052 legislation, which restricts eminent domain for CO2 pipelines, as a major obstacle to obtaining necessary land surveys along its proposed route. SCS stated that without these surveys, it cannot provide required feasibility assessments to the state’s Public Utilities Commission, making the current timeline unworkable.

Spare a thought for the insurers – A bill introduced in the Hawaii Senate seeks to allow insurers to recover costs from entities they claim are responsible for exacerbating climate impacts that affect insurance rates, according to Best Wire. Senate Bill 178 links rising carbon emissions to more severe weather events that disrupt insurance markets and argues that insurers should be able to recoup expenses from the fossil fuel industry, similar to past claims against tobacco and opioid-related entities. Senator Chris Lee (D), the bill’s primary sponsor, described the proposal as a natural step to hold responsible parties accountable. If enacted, the legislation would be the first of its kind in the US, though similar measures have been introduced in other states, including California. Lee expects debate but noted bipartisan support for climate policies in Hawaii. The state was the first to commit to 100% clean energy and aims to become carbon negative. Hawaii lawmakers began the year with a commitment to stabilising the property insurance market amid growing climate-related risks. Insurers are increasingly cautious about covering the state, a concern that predated the Aug. 2023 Maui wildfires. The Hawaii Insurers Council did not comment on the bill. (Insurance Business)

CO2 capture collaboration – 8 Rivers Capital, a US-based climate technology company, and Wood, a global engineering firm, have signed a preliminary front-end engineering and design (Pre-FEED) agreement for a carbon capture project in Wyoming, developed in partnership with utility provider PacifiCorp. The project will use 8 Rivers’ Allam-Fetvedt Cycle technology and direct-fired supercritical CO2 turbines, with Siemens Energy providing technical support. Expected to conclude Pre-FEED by Q3 2025, the initiative aims to modernise existing power infrastructure, enhance energy efficiency, and create economic opportunities in Wyoming.

Tree transparency – The American Forest Foundation (AFF) has launched an auction for over 1 mln carbon offset credits from its Family Forest Carbon Program, using dynamic baselines that are expected to address long standing issues of over-crediting in forest-backed offsets. The approach aims reduces developer flexibility in setting counterfactual baselines by comparing project forests with similar forests over time, limiting unrealistic credit generation. However, concerns have been raised about transparency, as project location data is not publicly disclosed. Experts argue that making project data public is essential to ensuring the credibility of forest carbon offsets. (Carbon Plan)

Charting CO2 storage – International energy and gas equipment manufacturer, Chart Industries, is partnering with Blue Spruce Operating to supply its Dry Piney Helium and Carbon Sequestration Project in Wyoming. Chart will supply the project’s Nitrogen Rejection Unit (NRU), helium process technology, and associated equipment after completing engineering and design for the project. At peak operation, the project is expected to produce 800 mln cubic feet of liquid helium (MMcfpd) per year, about 80 MMcfpd of natural gas, and store up to 4.5 MtCO2.

AND FINALLY…

Don’t look up – A new study Nature Sustainability examines the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit (LEO). It finds that increasing CO2 levels cool and contract the thermosphere, reducing atmospheric mass density and subsequently lowering drag on space debris, prolonging its presence in orbit. Using projections from shared socio-economic pathways, the study estimates a 50-66% reduction in satellite carrying capacity between 200 and 1,000 km altitude by 2100. This reduction heightens the risk of satellite collisions and uncontrolled debris accumulation, exacerbating the threat of the Kessler Syndrome. The study highlights the need to consider climate-driven changes in the upper atmosphere when planning satellite operations to ensure sustainable use of LEO.

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