A Europe-wide biodiversity research initiative has called for more integration of scenario planning of ecosystem threats to support transparency and assist with financial cost decisions.
The European Biodiversity Partnership, Biodiversa+, released a policy brief on Wednesday summarising the results of five research projects, and recommended that scenario modelling for the threats to biodiversity now become the norm.
“Informed management supported by these scenarios can cost less than the damage caused by inaction or inadequate actions,” the authors said.
The projects involved cover a number of key threats to biodiversity across Europe, including invasive species, climate change, and socioeconomic scenarios for freshwater ecosystems.
Results from the invasive species study showed that Europe is likely to become the leading continent for invasive bird species in the 21st century, whereas temperate Asia will be the leader in invasive fishes, and North America for vascular plants. Europe is to continue to have the second highest amount of invasive vascular plants and invasive fishes.
The scenarios developed under the research programmes can enable greater ecosystem resilience, and can lead to cross-sectoral action when presented transparently, the policy brief explained.
It went on the make six additional recommendations to policymakers that highlighted the benefits of modelling ecosystem resilience:
- Conveying transparency regarding financing opportunities can ensure stakeholder empowerment;
- Scenarios can help guide anticipatory surveilliance and protection in natural areas;
- The health of wildlife should be considered in addition to biodiversity (including microbial diversity);
- Scenarios and models are essential tools for assessing the future impacts of biological invasions under different trajectories of socio-economic development;
- Scenarios can help account for both the negative and positive environmental impacts of biological invasions on native biodiversity, which can help inform conservation decisions;
- Tools and instruments are available to limit the introduction and impacts of biological invasions. However, consistency and proactiveness is required in the regulation of biological invasions across boundaries.
Some ecosystems are often sidelined due to a lack of spatial and data coverage, the group contended.
For example, high mountain areas are likely to be a biodiversity refuge for species under threat of climate change, but many such areas have limited coverage under the red lists of endangered species, the authors said.
Future changes to such ecosystems can be modelled with tools developed under the BioDiv-Support project, which focused on the Scandinavian Mountains (the Scandes), the Spanish Central Mountain System, and the Pyrenees Mountains, the research organisation said.
By Tom Woolnough – tom@carbon-pulse.com
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