Even if all INDCs are implemented fully, the world will emit 12 billion tonnes CO2e more in 2030 than needed to stay on track to limiting global warming to 2C by the end of the century, UNEP said in a report on Friday.

The UNEP study was based on INDCs covering 148 nations, or 88% of global emissions, and concluded – in line with other INDC analysis reports – that current pledges are not sufficient to meet the 2C target, but instead would likely lead to a 3C temperature rise.

“In order to close the gap it is essential that the Paris Agreement adopt a dynamic approach in which ambitions, the mobilization of climate finance and other forms of cooperation can be adjusted upwards at regular intervals,” Achim Steiner, the UNEP executive director, said.

UNEP found that if all the INDCs are implemented, including the conditional targets, global emissions in 2030 would stand at around 54 billion tonnes of CO2e – 12 billion more than the IPCC has estimated is required to have a reasonable chance to meet the global warming target.

The report pointed out that if nations that have yet to submit INDCs were to commit to similar targets as those that have, up to 1 billion tonnes more might be avoided by 2030.

Global carbon output in 2025 would be around 53 billion tonnes, meaning annual emissions would continue to increase throughout next decade.

“The INDCs will likely have benefits beyond the estimated reductions to GHG emission levels as new climate policies and actions are being galvanized by the process,” UNEP said.

“The preparation of the INDCs has incentivized the exploration of links between development and climate, and the development of new national climate polices, and may be considered as the first step in a transition towards low-carbon economies.”

By Stian Reklev – stian@carbon-pulse.com

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