Emissions covered under the EU ETS were mostly unchanged last year compared to 2014, a poll of six analysts taken by Carbon Pulse showed.

The analysts, on average, forecast that the more than 11,000 stationary installations covered by the EU’s cap-and-trade scheme emitted 1.817 billion tonnes of CO2e, up 0.2% from their mean estimate of 1.813 billion tonnes in 2014.

“It’s quite a differentiated picture, with part of the power sector recording higher emissions in some countries (Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands and Poland) while a decrease in others (UK above all, followed by Denmark, Germany, Greece and Sweden),” said Matteo Mazzoni of Italy-based Nomisma Energia.

The analysts’ median forecast was 1.814 billion tonnes for 2015, up marginally from 1.813 billion the year prior.  The European Commission does not publish official final ETS emissions figures annually, so there is some disagreement amongst observers over historical output levels.

The predictions exclude emissions from aviation, though most analysts predict that airlines covered by the scheme added another 50-55 million tonnes to last year’s total.

The analysts had differing views on the size of the scheme’s 2015 emissions cap, but after accounting for Backloading and forecast offset use, most predicted that 2014’s roughly 2.1-billion allowance oversupply will have decreased by 250-350 million tonnes.

The European Commission will publish preliminary EU ETS emissions data for 2015 on Apr. 1.

The data has had little effect on EU Allowance prices in recent years, and that trend is expected to continue this year.

Emitters covered by the scheme, the world’s largest carbon market, cut CO2 output by around 5% between 2013 and 2014.

According to the European Environment Agency’s ‘Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2015’ report published last October, emissions are projected to decrease further under member states’ existing policies and measures.

“The projected reductions represent an 8% decrease between 2015 and 2020, and a further 5% decrease between 2020 and 2030, resulting in an overall decrease of 13% by 2030 compared to 2015 levels,” the report said.

Below is a summary of the six analysts’ predictions for 2015 EU ETS emissions, expressed in billions of tonnes of CO2e.

By Mike Szabo – mike@carbon-pulse.com