Protecting 30% of areas held by big landowners in the Brazilian Cerrado could avoid 13% of the expected biodiversity loss by 2070, while failure to do so would see vast areas of nature lost, a study has found.
The analysis, led by researchers from the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul and published in the journal Nature, revealed that the Cerrado could lose 26.5 million hectares of native vegetation by 2050 and 30.6 mln ha by 2070 due to inefficient environmental protection laws on private lands.
“Our results show evidence that applying the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) alone is not sufficient for the conservation of the Cerrado, as large areas especially within large properties can be deforested under the protection of the law,” the researchers said.
The NVPL, commonly known as the New Forest Code, was approved in 2012 to update the 1965 law; it regulates the exploration, conservation, and recovery of native vegetation in the country. However, it has been accused of forgiving illegal deforestation before 2008 and expanding the amount of privately owned land that can be deforested.
“[In the law] there are significant setbacks that must be considered, such as the legalisation of former illegal deforestation in Areas of Permanent Protection and the possibility to compensate Legal Reserves deficits in other areas covered by native vegetation,” said the analysis.
The study estimates that 40% of Cerrado’s native vegetation can be legally converted to agriculture and cattle under the NVPL.
“This massive conversion of land use could result in the extinction of about 1,140 endemic species by 2050, and perhaps in multiple tipping points, something not evaluated so far for this extraordinary and key biome for world food security and climate regulation,” the study said.
“In terms of reconciling conservation and agricultural production, we recommend that public policies focus primarily on large farms, such as protecting 30% of the area of properties larger than 2,500 ha, which would avoid a loss of more than 4.1 mln ha of native vegetation, corresponding to 13% of the predicted loss by 2070.”
The study also suggests using economic and market-driven mechanisms, such as carbon and biodiversity credits to prevent natural vegetation conversion along with other measures, including:
- Investing in environmental services
- Enhancing pasture productivity
- Incentivising the expansion of agricultural land on already converted areas
- Extending beyond the Amazon the scope of the Soy Moratorium, an agreement aimed at avoiding the acquisition of soybeans from areas deforested after 2008
The Cerrado, also known as the Brazilian Savanna, covers an area of 2 mln sq. km of Brazilian territory – about 24% of the total area –and has been classified as one of the 36 global biodiversity hotspots.
Despite its importance, the study highlighted that about 90% of the Cerrado is privately owned. Formally protected areas stand at approximately 8.3%, compared to 28% in the Amazon, 9.5% in the Forest Atlantic, and 8.8% in the Caatinga.
“The Cerrado is the Brazilian biome with the largest Legal Reserve deficit (minimum percentage of native vegetation required within private properties) and has around 4.2 mln ha of native vegetation that needs to be recovered,” the study showed.
Biodiversity loss is expected to occur mainly in large properties, with the most significant loss expected in Minas Gerais (22%), Tocantins (18%), Goias (14.6%), Mato Grosso (10.6%), and Maranhao (10.4%) over the next 46 years.
“Over the past 50 years, Brazil has transitioned from being a food importer to emerging as one of the primary global players in food and renewable energy production,” Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira, one of the authors of the study, told Carbon Pulse.
“Now the country faces a big challenge to keep expanding farmlands in the Cerrado to produce food and at the same time conservation native vegetation areas.”
The Brazilian farmland expansion has occurred mainly in the Cerrado, where deforestation climbed to record levels in 2023, up by 43% from 2022.
According to an investigation carried out by Global Witness, beef production fuelled illegal land clearance, with an area bigger than Chicago deforested between 2008 and 2019 by ranches supplying Brazil’s three biggest meatpackers.
By Giada Ferraglioni – giada@carbon-pulse.com
** Click here to sign up to our twice-weekly biodiversity newsletter **
