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TOP STORY
Global emissions set to rise as uncertainty boosts fossil fuel markets in 2025, analysts warn
Global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise this year as energy demand growth outstrips clean energy supply growth, analysts said on Thursday.
ASIA PACIFIC
South Korea releases 10-year roadmap for ETS reforms
South Korea has established a blueprint that lays out the goals and policy direction of the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) over the next decade.
China hints at ETS inclusion of financial institutions, but timeline remains unclear
China’s financial regulator has given the green light to eight other securities firms to be involved in domestic carbon markets, which could lay the basis for the inclusion of financial institutions in the national emissions trading scheme, according to analysts.
China clarifies trading rules for national offset market
China has announced a set of trading rules for China Certified Emission Reductions (CCERs), as the country’s national voluntary market is expected to see the issuance of new credits shortly.
Japan, Indonesia adopt CCS/CCUS regulations, approve new methods at Joint Crediting Mechanism meeting
Indonesia and Japan at a recent meeting adopted guidelines for carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCS/CCUS) projects under the latter’s Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM), as well as approving seven new eligible crediting methodologies.
Pakistan’s federal cabinet authorises carbon trading regulations
The federal cabinet of Pakistan has approved international carbon market regulations, launched during COP29 in Baku in November last year.
Taiwan boosts 2030 emissions reduction target
Taiwan has updated its GHG emissions reduction target, aiming to reduce its emissions 26-30% by the end of the decade compared to the 23-25% target set in 2022, according to an official statement.
EMEA
EU’s power emissions hit historic low last year, industrial electricity demand barely rises -data
Emissions from European electricity generation hit a historic low in 2024 due to a higher proportion of renewables, while electricity demand did not pick up, the bloc’s industry association reported on Thursday.
Abu Dhabi launches MRV programme for emissions tracking, carbon pricing
Abu Dhabi’s Environment Agency has introduced a measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) programme to standardise emissions tracking and support the development of a carbon pricing mechanism in the emirate.
Euro Markets: EUAs hit 10-month high moderate trade as gas surges on North Sea outage
European carbon allowance prices jumped 3% on Thursday and touched a 10-month high as the market began to resume normal activity after the holiday break, with front-December EUAs picking up their correlation with TTF natural gas prices that rose steeply on the back of outages in the North Sea.
AMERICAS
Republican states, oil major petition SCOTUS in fossil fuel lawsuits
A group of Republican-led states and a global oil major continued their fight against separate lawsuits looking to hold fossil fuel companies financially liable for the effects of climate change in briefs submitted in December to the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS).
Accounting standards board proposes unified US rules for carbon offsets, credits
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) launched a 90-day public comment process for proposed updates to its unified accounting standards for environmental credits, including carbon offsets.
Major US lenders exit UN-convened net zero alliance
Three US banking giants have announced their departure from a global climate-banking group, joining a growing number of Wall Street firms stepping away in recent weeks and marking a win for Republican lawmakers.
California’s voluntary carbon market disclosures compliance kicks in
As of Jan. 1, companies operating within California must disclose their voluntary carbon market participation and net-zero emissions claims online based on state law.
California CCS project developer receives state’s first permits for CO2 storage
A subsidiary of a California oil and gas company received the state’s first permits authorising CO2 storage on Tuesday from the EPA, enabling the developer to move forward with construction of its carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project, despite an outstanding legal challenge from environmental groups.
California expected to miss 200 hydrogen fuelling stations by 2025 target – gov’t report
California agency ARB reported that the state’s hydrogen fuelling network struggles with slow development due to compounding challenges across the supply chain, weighing on market uptake of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).
WCI Markets: CCA, WCA activity thins through holidays
Secondary market California Carbon Allowances (CCA) and Washington Carbon Allowances (WCA) futures and options transaction volumes declined over the Christmas and New Year holidays, with traders expecting activity to pick up early next week.
VOLUNTARY
Further reforms needed for voluntary carbon markets to help outcome-based finance model hit climate, sustainability goals
Voluntary carbon markets can help mobilise private capital to address climate funding gaps in high-impact sectors, but systemic issues need to urgently be addressed for those markets and the wider outcome-based finance model to realise their full potential, according to a new report.
Digitalisation increasingly used by oil and gas industry to curb emissions -report
Oil and gas companies are increasingly deploying digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics for benefits such as emissions reduction, productivity gain, and supply chain optimisation, a new report has found.
Bloomberg acquires data and analytics from climate tech company
Bloomberg has taken ownership of carbon market data and analytics from an AI-powered climate tech company.
BIODIVERSITY (FREE TO READ)
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IETA sets out way forward to scale biodiversity credit markets
The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) has released analysis on the nascent biodiversity credit market, identifying integrity and the role played by governments to be among key elements driving demand.
Dutch developer, Sri Lankan company partner on plastic credit project under Verra’s framework
A Dutch nature-based solutions developer has partnered with a plastic recycling company to launch a plastic credit project in Sri Lanka, with plans to register it under Verra’s framework by mid-2025.
eDNA key to improving biodiversity monitoring within forest carbon markets, study says
Forest carbon markets should rely on new technologies such as environmental DNA (eDNA) to improve biodiversity monitoring, as over half of the existing projects risk overlooking co-benefits for nature, according to a paper.
Funding gaps, North-South spat jeopardise Global Biodiversity Framework implementation -study
Divergences between developed and developing countries, along with massive funding gaps, pose serious threats to the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), a study published Tuesday said.
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ADVERTISING BROCHURE
Carbon Pulse has published its 2025 advertising brochure and media pack, featuring updated offerings and prices. With that, bookings are now open for advertising on our website and in our newsletters.
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EVENTS
Carbon Forward Middle East – Jan. 16-17, Abu Dhabi – Announcing Carbon Forward Middle East in Abu Dhabi, a great new event to explore carbon markets in the MENA region. We’ll be releasing more details about this conference soon. For now, put Jan. 16-17 in your calendar and email info@carbon-forward.com to express interest in attending, speaking, or sponsoring.
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Premium job listings
- Assistant Director, Carbon Markets, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) – Washington DC/at Asia Society Centers in US, India, Korea, Japan, Australia, France, or Switzerland
- Senior Program Officer, Carbon Markets, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) – Washington DC/at Asia Society Centers in US, India, Korea, Japan, Australia, France, or Switzerland
See all listings or post a job
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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
EMEA
Too hot to handle? – The EU is drafting plans to “stress test” critical infrastructure, such as railways and electricity grids, for hot weather to prepare for the impacts of climate change, the FT reports. The testing would evaluate the resilience of infrastructure under scenarios of a 4C increase in global temperatures. This initiative is part of a broader policy to address the growing risks of disasters like heatwaves, wildfires, blackouts, and floods. European Environment Agency (EEA) assessments indicate temperatures in Europe could rise at least 3C by 2050 compared to pre-industrial levels, with severe consequences for infrastructure and public health. Recent climate events, such as Slovenia’s 2023 floods (costing 16% of its GDP) and deadly floods in Valencia, Spain, highlight the region’s vulnerability. France has already initiated national stress testing, and the EU may push member states to adopt similar measures. The plan will also include enhancing early warning systems and incentivising private investment in resilient infrastructure. Despite the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global temperature rises to below 2C, the global average is expected to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time this year, with Europe experiencing disproportionately severe effects.
Climate dedication – Portugal has launched the Climate Agency (ApC), which will be entirely dedicated to climate and responsible for areas including carbon markets and European emissions trading. Initially with 120 to 130 employees, most of whom will move from the Portuguese Environment Agency (APA) and the General Secretariat of the Ministry of the Environment, the ApC will operate alongside the Ministry of the Environment and be coordinated by the minister for the sector, Maria da Graca Carvalho. Other areas under the ApC’s responsibility will include international climate negotiations and the relationship with developing countries on these issues, financing related to decarbonisation, and management of environment and energy funds. Its main purpose will be to lead, propose, and implement environmental policies, coordinate decarbonisation in various sectors, and adapt the country to climate change. The agency has two months to make the transition.
Russian offsets – Russian petrochemical company Sibur has offset the carbon footprint of the Russian delegation’s participation in COP29, held in Azerbaijan last November. It marks the first carbon-neutral delegation with confirmed international verification in all years of the UN climate summit, said the statement on the Russian registry of carbon units. Amounting to 970 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, the offset was made using carbon units received as a result of the implementation of the climate project to improve energy efficiency at Sibur-Neftekhim (a manufacturer of industrial organic chemicals), with the units subsequently written off from the company’s account in the Russian registry. Sibur’s climate portfolio includes eight implemented climate projects with a total GHG emission reduction effect of 10.8 mln tonnes of CO2-eq over a 10-year horizon.
Oman’s Net Zero Centre – Oman plans to set up a Net Zero Centre to monitor the implementation of projects and provide technical support as it strives to meet its net zero goal by 2050. The Middle Eastern nation is actively targeting hydrogen, ammonia, and low-carbon development and exports, and has more than 50,000 sq km currently allocated to green hydrogen production. The centre will help to transfer and adopt the latest international practices and will also oversee the registration and approval of requests for carbon certificate trading at the domestic level. This will ensure alignment with international carbon credit frameworks and also maintain a thorough inventory of carbon emissions from various sources. (Gasworld)
ASIA PACIFIC
No reporting, please – Australia’s Coalition party will scrap the country’s mandatory climate reporting laws if it wins government at the next election, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor told the Australian Financial Review. The reporting laws, which passed parliament in August and came into effect on Jan. 1 this year, introduced standardised reporting requirements for businesses to make climate-related financial disclosures. Taylor described the laws as “bad”, saying they would make it harder for Australian farmers, manufacturers, and miners to attract capital, insurance, and financial services, while reducing the competitiveness for international companies to invest in Australia. ASX 200 companies are the first group of companies to be brought under the new reporting regime, and will initially disclose Scope 1 and 2 emissions, while Scope 3 emissions will come into effect in 2026.
We are on track – India’s greenhouse gas emissions declined by 7.93% in 2020 compared to 2019, even as the country’s GDP emissions intensity fell by 36% between 2005-2020, according to the country’s fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR-4) submitted to the UNFCCC earlier this week. India’s total GHG emissions amounted to 2,437 million tonnes of CO2e. According to the report, the main contributors to India’s total emissions were CO2 generated from the use of fossil fuels, methane from livestock, and increasing aluminium and cement production. The LULUCF sector remained net sink during the 2020 inventory period, Business Standard reported. The energy sector contributed the most to overall emissions with over 75%, followed by the agriculture sector at 13%, industrial processes and product use (IPPU) at 8%, and waste at about 2.5%. As per the report, as of Oct. 2024, the share of non-fossil sources in the country’s installed electricity generation capacity stood at 46.52%, and the forest and tree cover stood at over 25% of the total geographical area of the country. Also, between 2005 and 2021, an additional carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO2e was created, indicating that the country is on track to meet its stated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals.
Sweet offsets – Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan, Lam Son Sugar Cane Joint Stock Corporation (Lasuco Group), and Sagri Company, an agri-tech firm have signed an agreement to implement Vietnam’s first project which generates carbon credits by offsetting emissions from sugarcane fields. The partnership will pilot an environmentally regenerative agricultural model on sugarcane fields cultivated through the collaboration between Lasuco Group and contracted farmers, as Sagri will provide advanced satellite analysis technology to monitor and reduce emissions while also enhancing soil carbon storage. The trial phase will begin later this year and initially cover 500 hectares of farmland. The project will be registered under international carbon standard Verra.
Partnerships – Japanese energy firm Inpex has teamed up with two forestry associations and the local government to create forest-derived J-Credits from forests in Numata City, according to a company statement. The move comes after Numata City last year signed an agreement with the Tone Numata-JForest/Forestry Association to start appropriate management of the city’s nearly 800 hectares of forest. Project developer ByWill recently also inked three more decarbonisation deals with Japanese towns in the Hokkaido and Shizuoka regions to promote the creation of J-Credits in the country.
Money raised – ForestFolks, a startup providing forest maintenance services for the creation and sales of carbon credit, has raised 15 million yen ($95,675) from Sparkle in a pre-seed round. The startup said it will use the funds to create carbon credits, secure forests, strengthen its management base, and expand relationships.
New market – Green Carbon, a project developer with a presence in Japan and Southeast Asia, has expressed interest in expanding its carbon credit business to the Middle East region with satellite data analysis technology, according to a company statement. The company said it is seeking to facilitate the creation of carbon credits by leveraging the UAE’s natural resources and supporting access to international carbon markets.
Offtake – Equis has successfully secured a 20-year fixed-price offtake for the Anma offshore wind project, as part of the South Korean government’s 2024 fixed-price wind offtake auction held by the trade ministry, it announced Thursday. The offtake agreement will be implemented with regional power generation subsidiaries of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in Q1 2025. With the offtake secured, Equis said it aims to reach financial close and final investment decision in Q2 2025.
AMERICAS
On pause – Verra has paused VCS1663 – the Fazenda Sao Paulo Agroforestry project developed by Brazil-based Maronse Services Agricolas and Italy-based Carbon Credits Consulting – as the registry was informed on Sep. 10, 2024 that harvesting occurred in the project area starting in Dec. 2023, inconsistent with the validated project description and past VCU issuances. Verra is opening a new review of the project as a result and any further credit or label issuance is suspended. Once review is completed, Verra will issue a report to the developers who will be requested to respond to the findings. The afforestation project aimed to restore more than 286 ha of degraded, cattle-ranching grassland in the municipality of Camp Grande in the state of Mato Grosso Do Sul, according to a project description listed on platform Ecologi. According to Carbon Pulse’s Carbon Project and Ratings Database, nearly 209,000 credits have been issued and 132,000 credits retired by companies such as McKinsey.
Hochul signs superfund bill – New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed a bill Thursday that will create a climate superfund to be financed by fossil fuel companies. The bill, known as the Climate Change Superfund Act, creates a climate change cost recovery programme funded by fossil fuel companies based on their historic emissions. Money will be allocated to climate resiliency projects, such as coastal wetlands restoration, energy efficiency cooling systems in public housing, and more. New York is the second state after Vermont to create a climate superfund via compensatory payments from fossil fuel companies. Following the bill’s signing, research and analytics company ClearView Energy Partners said that more Democrat-led states may pursue similar measures in during President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming term, although they expect legal challenges to be filed.
Big offshore wind funding – Equinor has landed a $3 bln financing package for an offshore wind project off the coast of New York, at competitive terms, due to strong interest from lenders, ESG Today reported. The 80,000-acre (32,000 ha) Empire Wind 1 project is expected to be the first offshore wind project to connect into the New York City grid, powering 500,000 homes, with a contracted capacity of 810 MW. Already under construction, it’s expected to reach commercial operation in 2027. In June 2024, Equinor and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) executed a 25-year purchase and sale agreement (PSA) for power from Empire Wind 1 at a $155/MWh strike price.
Biochar battle – Saratoga Biochar Solutions, a company proposing a sewage sludge and wood waste processing plant in Moreau, New York, has appealed the denial of its air and solid waste permits by the state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). On Nov. 12, the DEC denied permits to the company citing deficiencies in their application, including missing emissions calculations, insufficient plans for waste management, and unclear information about the chemical makeup of the waste. While Saratoga Biochar CEO Ray Apy initially accepted the DEC’s denial, he cited obligations to the company’s investors as reason for their early December appeal. The proposed processing plant has been met with controversy for some time, particularly from community group Not Moreau, which has rallied against the plant due to concerns surrounding environmental risks of biochar’s process, including the use of potential toxins such as PFAS. (Times Union)
Deal breakers – The Biden administration’s attempt to end public financing for overseas oil and gas projects has faced recent setbacks, with negotiations hitting an impasse last week, E&E reported. The proposed deal, part of ongoing talks within the OECD, has been blocked by key nations including South Korea and Turkiye. Climate advocates argue that this deal could redirect billions in funding away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy alternatives. Export credit agencies, such as the US Export-Import Bank, have continued financing fossil fuel projects despite Biden’s early promises to curb such investments, E&E said. While negotiations are set to continue, this latest setback could add to potential failure to reach an agreement, given the upcoming change in US leadership and the likelihood of President-elect Donald Trump opposing the deal.
Data centres’ growing footprint – A recent report published by Berkley Lab found that US data centres consumed 176 TWh of electricity in 2023, leading to an indirect water footprint of 800 bln litres and 61 bln kg of CO2 emissions. In 2023, data centres’ energy consumption resulted in an indirect water use of 4.52 L/kWh and emissions of 0.34 kg/kWh. In contrast, the US national average for water intensity from electricity use was 4.35 L/kWh, with an emission factor of 0.35 kg/kWh of CO₂ equivalent. The findings from the report project that indirect water consumption and emissions are expected to increase in upcoming years alongside data centres’ growing energy use. The report estimates that decarbonisation of the power sector is crucial to achieving the country’s 2050 net-zero GHG emissions goal.
PJM responds to Pennsylvania – One day after Pennsylvania asked FERC to lower the PJM Interconnection’s price cap to protect consumers from high prices, the grid operator responded with concerns about power shortages in the face of data centre expansion, according to Reuters. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro originally filed his complaint Monday asking FERC to order a lower price cap to protect consumers from “runaway” capacity prices. The complaint follows PJM’s July auction which produced record high prices that will cost ratepayers $14.7 bln, up from $2.2 bln at the previous auction, Utility Dive reported. In a Tuesday response, PJM argued that a lower price cap could create power shortages due to the fast-paced growth of data centres.
INTERNATIONAL
China attacks US EV subsidies – The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will consider whether the US’ EV subsidies violate global trade rules nine months after a complaint from China. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has appointed a three-person panel led by the former Botswana Attorney General Athaliah Molokomme, along with former Kenyan ambassador Amina Mohamed and former Canadian trade diplomat Elaine Feldman, according to E&E News. Okonjo-Iweala selected the panel after the US and China were unable to mutually agree on adjudicators. The subsidies targeted by China are part of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which President-elect Donald Trump has roundly criticised and threatened to repeal.
SCIENCE & TECH
IVF-born calf – A calf born using IVF has been hailed as hugely significant by scientists for accelerating the dairy industry’s journey to net zero. The calf, named Hilda, is part of the Langhill Herd, which is the focus of the Langhill breeding study, the world’s longest-running livestock genetics project. Scientists said that using IVF meant the next generation of the herd arrived eight months earlier than previously possible, meaning that if the process were to be repeated, they could double the rate of “genetic gain” in the herd, and so speed up the process of selecting and breeding more “methane-efficient” animals.
AND FINALLY…
2024 in a word – “Greenlash” – a backlash against environmental policies – has marked a shift in global attitudes towards climate action, the FT writes. While recent years saw significant progress towards climate action, including the US’s landmark IRA, the EU’s CBAM, and the UK’s plan to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2030, the momentum has faltered amid rising populism and economic pressures. In 2023, Europe’s renewable energy production soared, and emissions dropped significantly. However, inflation and cost-of-living concerns fuelled net-zero skepticism, with populist parties labelling green initiatives as elitist and costly. This backlash led to policy rollbacks: Germany softened its heat pump law, Brussels abandoned plans to cut pesticide use, and green parties suffered electoral losses in Europe. In the UK, the petrol and diesel car ban was postponed to 2035. Despite these setbacks, there are signs of resilience. New carbon pricing programmes are emerging around the globe, a number of ruling political parties including the UK’s Labour and Canada’s Liberals remain committed to ambitious decarbonisation, observers expect many elements of the US IRA to remain intact, and China’s push for green energy leadership continues unabated. However, with populism growing and disinformation spreading globally, plus the potential for a Trump administration to reverse US climate policies and for other countries to follow suit, the future of global climate action remains uncertain.
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