The Council of Ministers in the five Nordic countries on Tuesday released a report saying most of the world’s plastic pollution problem could be gone in less than 20 years with the right policies in place, although infrastructure challenges are likely to obstruct their implementation.

The intergovernmental body Nordic Council of Ministers outlined how stringent policy measures could drastically reduce plastic pollution by 2040. The council is made up of ministers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.

Pollution from plastics, waste, and chemicals is one of the five drivers of biodiversity loss globally, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services (IPBES). UN Environment Programme estimates that marine plastic pollution has increased tenfold since the 1980s affecting at least 43% of marine mammals, 44% of seabirds, and 86% of marine turtles.

The 15 policy interventions proposed by the council included a combination of downstream and upstream measures for adoption by governments:

1. Targets to reduce virgin plastic volumes-calibrated by sector and local context
2. Virgin plastic fees to fund solutions across the plastic lifecycle with fees ranging from $1,000-2,000/tonne by 2040, calibrated by region
3. Application-specific levers to reduce plastic consumption in textiles, fisheries and aquaculture, transportation, and construction
4. Bans on avoidable single-use plastics to incentivise elimination, shift to reuse models and substitution
5. Reuse targets for avoidable single-use plastics between 15-100%, calibrated by applications
6. Phaseout criteria for problematic plastics, polymer applications, and chemicals of concern, including bans and moving to ‘safe lists’ progressively
7. Design rules for safe reuse, repair, durability, and cost-effective recycling calibrated by application and by local context
8. Targets for collection and recycling rates including segregated collection for plastics
9. Modulated extended producer responsibility schemes applied across sectors with fees of $300-1,000/tonne calibrated by region and by product
10. Controls for a just transition for the informal sector enhancing their labour and human rights
11. Restrictions on plastic waste trade to prevent exports to areas with limited capacity
12. Standards on the controlled disposal of waste that cannot be prevented or safely recycled
13. Mitigation and removal programmes for legacy plastics in the environment
14. Upstream policies, such as bans and behavioural change, to reduce microplastic use and emissions
15. Downstream policies to capture microplastics, followed by controlled disposal

GLOBAL RULES

The report outlined two scenarios, a Business-as-Usual (BAU) and a “Global Rules” scenario, which were modelled based on their wholesale adoption.

In the BAU Scenario, without concerted efforts to curb plastic pollution, annual levels of mismanaged plastics could skyrocket by 86% to 205 million tonnes by 2040 from 110 million in 2019.

Virgin plastic production is projected to surge by 66% to 712 Mt by 2040 from 430 Mt in 2019, contributing to an alarming 63% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system, according to the BAU scenario outlined in the report.

The Global Rules scenario envisioned a future where far-reaching policies implemented across the plastic lifecycle could reduce annual mismanaged plastic volumes by 90% in 2040 compared to 2019 levels. This scenario also proposed a 30% reduction in annual virgin plastic production by 2040.

Under the Global Rules Scenario, the “End of Life fate” of the majority of plastic waste would shift from being predominantly engineered landfills to mechanical recycling, the report claimed.

Modelled end-of-life fate of plastic under the business-as-usual and global rules scenario.

The Global Rules scenario would lead to an annual prevention of 184 Mt of plastic waste by 2040 while boosting recycling output to 201 Mt, a sevenfold increase from 2019, according to the report. However, achieving these outcomes necessitates universal adoption of the proposed policies across all jurisdictions.

The projected trends varied by region: controlled disposal volumes in Europe, the USA, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Oceania would decrease by 46% by 2040 relative to 2019 levels, the report said.

However, annual controlled disposal volumes in other regions would increase by 74% by 2040 relative to 2019 levels, due to these regions already lacking waste management infrastructure.

By Tom Woolnough – tom@carbon-pulse.com

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