The overlap between humans and wildlife is expected to grow across more than half of land worldwide by 2070, with potentially grave implications for habitat and species conservation, a paper has said.
The study, led by researchers at the University of Michigan and published in the journal Science Advances, estimated that 56.6% of the Earth’s land will experience an increased coexistence between humans and animals, while only 11.8% is bound to see a decrease.
Increases will be driven primarily by the expansion of the human population rather than a change in wildlife distribution caused by the climate crisis, according to the researchers.
“In many places around the world, more people will interact with wildlife in the coming decades, and often those wildlife communities will comprise different kinds of animals than the ones that live there now,” said Neil Carter, lead author of the study and associate professor of environment and sustainability.
Researchers developed an index combining estimates of human-inhabited lands and data on the distribution of 22,374 terrestrial amphibian, bird, mammal, and reptile species.
The largest share of areas affected by an increased overlap will be in Asia and Africa, accounting for 33.5% and 27.8% of the total respectively, followed by South America (15.5%), North America (12.1%), and Europe (8.4%).
GREATER PRESSURE
The areas set to face the highest risks are concentrated in regions that already have high human population density, such as China and India, as well as agricultural lands and forests.
“The reason that is concerning is because those areas have very high biodiversity that would experience greater pressure in the future,” added Carter.
Forests in Africa and South America are set to witness the strongest declines in species richness, according to the study.
In South America, amphibians would be the most affected, with the species richness projected to decrease by 45%, followed by reptiles (40%), birds (37%), and mammals (33%). In Africa, mammal richness would decline by 21% and bird richness by 26%.
“These findings underscore the need to focus conservation and sustainability efforts on hotspots of overlap in forests because of the increasing and simultaneous human stressors that these diverse wildlife communities will face in the future,” said the study.
Researchers also called for a shift in how conservation strategies are devised, particularly in areas that haven’t seen much human settlement so far.
“Our study suggests that with more areas of the world expected to be shared both by people and wildlife, conservation planning will have to get more creative and inclusive,” said Carter.
By Sergio Colombo – sergio@carbon-pulse.com
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