Over 460 million hectares of the world’s intact natural land is at risk of being converted into other uses, such as agriculture, a paper has said.
The study, led by researchers at non-profit The Nature Conservancy and published in the journal Scientific Data, mapped land conversion pressure across 200 countries due to expected population growth and industry developments.
Results showed that nearly 23% of land on the planet, or 3 billion ha, faces conversion pressure, including intact natural lands critical for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem function.
“Anthropogenically-induced habitat change has increased dramatically over the past 25 years, causing widespread losses to global biodiversity and nature’s benefits to people,” said the study.
“Given limited capital and resources, targeted and proactive conservation on at-risk lands will be required to effectively halt further habitat loss and degradation.”
Researchers developed the conversion pressure index (CPI), combining data on historical rates of human modification of natural land with estimates on potential expansion by large-scale development from a number of sectors, including renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, and agriculture.
High or very high CPIs were observed in 48 countries – 19 in Africa, 13 in Central and South America, and 16 in East and Southeast Asia.
The regions associated with the highest conversion pressure index (CPI). Source: Scientific Data
As many as 12 out of 14 terrestrial biomes include ecoregions with relatively high CPIs, according to the study.
The tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests biome has nearly half of its ecoregions associated with high CPIs, followed by mangroves, tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and flooded grasslands and savannas.
The study stressed the need to improve understanding of where future land conversion may happen and take urgent action to protect biodiversity, as previous research has largely focused on some ecosystems overlooking others.
“For example, several studies have focused on threats to forested ecosystems, leaving a paucity of practical knowledge about threats to the remaining 70% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface,” said the study.
“Without a consistent methodology to map future conversion pressures across all terrestrial habitats and across key drivers, we will likely miss many critical hotspots of threatened biodiversity and carbon stores where conservation interventions should be focused.”
The UN Environment Programme said that around 420 mln ha of forest have been lost through conversion to other land uses since 1990.
Land conversion for crop production and other anthropogenic activities also results in a large loss of soil organic carbon, with potential implications for the voluntary carbon market, according to a separate study.
By Sergio Colombo – sergio@carbon-pulse.com
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