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TOP STORY
POLL: Analysts raise EUA prices forecasts, but short-term views diverging
European carbon prices are holding at elevated levels in the €26.00-27.50 range, but according to a poll of analysts there appears to be a growing disparity in views as to the direction EUAs will go next.
ASIA PACIFIC
Even modest carbon price could make a difference in China, analysts say
A carbon price of around 50 yuan ($7.27) per tonne could be sufficient to help throttle new coal investments in China, especially in combination with other regulatory efforts to reduce the risks of new fossil fuel construction, according to a report published Wednesday.
Several Shenzhen emitters miss ETS compliance deadline
Eight companies missed the June 30 annual compliance deadline for Shenzhen’s emissions trading scheme, but have been given until Sep. 10 to make good before penalties kick in.
EMEA
Brussels launches petition on minimum, import-proof carbon pricing
The European Commission registered a carbon pricing petition on Wednesday, in a move that could eventually spur tougher curbs on emissions amid mounting public anger over inaction on climate.
EU Market: EUAs dip further below €27 on weak auction, energy
EUAs sank on Wednesday after struggling to absorb Poland’s bumper auction and as a weakening energy complex crushed power generator margins.
AMERICAS
California diesel consumption, emissions drop amid higher retail prices and renewable content
California fuel consumption continued to see year-on-year declines during the first quarter of 2019, as higher retail prices and greater renewable content in diesel lessened entities’ compliance obligations under the state’s WCI-linked ETS.
California compliance entities’ V19 carbon short position hits new high, data shows
Compliance entities’ short positions on the V19 California Carbon Allowance (CCA) contract peaked at the end of June as prices rebounded slightly after their first major retracement, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.
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BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
Big numbers – China has submitted its second national inventory to the UNFCCC, for the first time estimating its full GHG emissions in 2010 and 2014. According to its official data, GHG output excluding LULUCF stood at 10.54 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2010, rising to 12.3 bln in 2014. Counting LULUCF, the numbers were 9.93 and 11.15 billion tonnes, respectively. The report said 48 MtCO2e came in addition in 2010 from international aviation and shipping, a number that rose to 52 Mt in 2014. Most emissions data for China focuses on CO2 and is based on power generation and cement production data. EU researchers have previously estimated China’s full GHG emissions in 2010 at 10.89 billion tonnes, some 350 Mt more than China’s own estimates.
Hard at first – German economy minister Peter Altmaier said the government plans to agree on a “Hard Coal Exit Law” in autumn, and the decision on which plants are shut down first will be taken via tenders, reports Tagesspiegel Background. “We concretely plan to pass the draft of a hard coal phaseout law in the cabinet in autumn and to carry out the parliamentary procedure by the end of 2019,” said Altmaier. Phasing out lignite will likely be more difficult than hard coal, and the government is currently in talks with mine operators. “The talks with RWE are advanced and very constructive,” said the minister. (Clean Energy Wire)
Some lines on Leyen – Little is known about the climate credentials of surprise European Commission president nominee Ursula von der Leyen, but according to Clean Energy Wire, recent remarks suggest the current German defence minister considers emission reduction a key issue. In the wake of the EU elections in May, von der Leyen said that climate change was “a rightfully important – if not the most important – issue we as Europeans have to deal with” and that her party had failed to “set clear priorities” in this regard. Von der Leyen has also defended the German government’s decision to accelerate its nuclear phase-out after the Fukushima disaster in Japan.
Worse than coal – The global boom in natural gas is undermining efforts to transition the world off fossil fuel infrastructure and halt the climate crisis, a new analysis says. A report released this week from the Global Energy Monitor estimates that the large amount of planned natural gas projects around the world could create a carbon footprint for LNG “worse than the coal boom,” pointing out that an increase in methane emissions from natural gas production and use would greatly effect global emissions in the short-term. The report also estimates that much of the industry’s $1.3 trillion in investments may be “unprofitable in the long term” as the world rapidly transitions to renewables. “We know that LNG is not a good answer climate-wise,” Global Energy Monitor founder and director Ted Nace told CNN. “It might even be pretty foolish financially — for all the reasons that coal turned out to be a bad investment 10 years ago.” (Climate Nexus)
KfW kills it – German government-owned business and development bank KfW has become the latest financial institution to stop the financing of all coal-related business activities. The KfW Group’s new “Exclusion List” rules out financing the “prospecting, exploration and mining of coal; land-based means of transport and related infrastructure essentially used for coal; power plants, heating stations and cogeneration facilities essentially fired with coal.” It also says that “Investments in power transmission grids with significant coal-based power feed-in will only be pursued in countries and regions with an ambitious national climate protection policy or strategy (NDC), or where the investments are targeted at reducing the share of coal-based power in the relevant grid.” (Clean Energy Wire)
Bu Gatti be kidding me – Canada’s National Energy Board has published estimates for how much money the federal ‘backstop’ carbon levy of C$20 will add to gasoline costs for different vehicle brands. Assuming a gas cost of C$1.40 per litre, driving a Chiron by French luxury carmaker Bugatti will cost drivers C$1.04 per 100 kilometres travelled. However, opting for Toyota’s Prius hybrid will only lead to the carbon tax adding 21 cents/100 kilometre. Some 90% of carbon tax revenues are rebated directly to consumers in the jurisdiction of origin.
And finally… Is that all? – Moody’s Analytics estimates climate change impacts will cost the global economy up to $69 trillion by the end of the century, The Washington Post reported Wednesday. The consulting firm predicts rising temperatures and extreme weather events will disrupt productivity and damage infrastructure, hitting the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa the hardest. The $69 trillion estimate is derived assuming warming hits the 2C threshold, which is seen as the limit to stem climate change’s most dire effects. The firm added that warming limited to 1.5C would still cause $54 trillion in damages by the end of the century.
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