By Mark Lewis, Head of Research, Andurand Capital Management LLP

Although written almost four hundred years before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its first Assessment Report, Shakespeare’s most famous creation is a cautionary tale for our age.  April 2024 was the hottest April in history and the eleventh consecutive record-breaking month for the Earth’s average surface temperature, with the warming impact of cumulative and still growing concentrations of greenhouse-gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere pushing the world relentlessly towards climate breakdown. If we are to avoid Hamlet’s fate we must heed the lesson his tragedy teaches us.

Hamlet is the heir to the Danish throne whose father, King Claudius, has been murdered by his uncle (Claudius’ brother). Not content with fratricide, the uncle then marries Claudius’ widow (Hamlet’s mother) and usurps the throne. The ghost of Claudius appears to the Prince at the beginning of the play with the exhortation that Hamlet avenge his father’s death by killing his uncle. But Hamlet equivocates, preferring to lament that “the time is out of joint”.

Exasperated by Hamlet’s lack of resolve, the ghost re-appears midway through the play to reinforce his sense of purpose: “This visitation is but to whet thy almost blunted purpose.” But Hamlet remains lost in his own introspection and at his lowest point bemoans the state of the atmosphere above him: “It goes so heavily with my disposition that this most excellent canopy, this brave o’erhanging firmament, this majestical roof fretted with golden fire,—why, it appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours.”

The dramatic tension in ‘Hamlet’ stems from the hero’s attempt to resolve his horrifying and unnatural situation, and the tragedy stems from his fatal character flaw: Hamlet is a chronic procrastinator, and delays taking action time and again until it is too late. Until “the rest is silence”.

Like Claudius’ ghost and his admonitions to action, the IPCC has been urging collective global efforts to mitigate climate change with increasing urgency since 1990, with a succession of Assessment Reports conclusively proving the link between man-made GHG-emissions and global warming, and between this warming and climate change.

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) published in 2022 stated baldly: “Emissions have to be cut rapidly, deeply, and in a sustained manner over time.” Yet according to the United Nations Environment Programme, global GHG emissions reached a record 57.4 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2022, a 60% increase over 1990, and a 7% increase over 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement.

AR6 contained a list of action points for world leaders that if heeded could still keep us on track to comply with the Paris Agreement by limiting the increase in global warming to no more than 1.5°C, three of which should now be immediate priorities for policymakers.

First, we need to remove fossil-fuel subsidies. According to AR6, the projected emissions from existing fossil-fuel infrastructure exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, while building out all the currently planned fossil-fuel infrastructure would practically guarantee we breach 2°C. And yet the IMF estimates that total subsidies for hydrocarbons in 2022 amounted to a bewildering $7trn (7% of global GDP). Such subsidies are simply an incentive for self-incineration.

Second, we need to scale up climate finance for developing countries. This is crucial not only from the perspective of global solidarity but also if we are to help developing countries meet their growing energy needs without locking in new fossil-fuel infrastructure – and hence emissions – for the next 30-40 years.

Third, we need broader and more ambitious carbon-pricing mechanisms worldwide. The price mechanism exists in order to allocate scarce resources, and in this case the scarce resource is the limited amount of space left in the atmosphere for further concentrations of GHGs. This, in fact, is the ultimate scarce resource, and it needs to be priced accordingly.

So far, like Hamlet in the face of Claudius’ ghost, the world has preferred words to deeds when presented with the IPCC’s prescriptions. But failure to act now on these three priorities will mean that climate catastrophe is not just a risk but a certainty.

In the end, the result of Hamlet’s delay is that the death of his usurping uncle comes at the cost of his own life, that of his lover, his lover’s brother, his lover’s father, and his own mother. Hamlet and all those closest to him die because he did not act soon enough.

We have to avoid Hamlet’s fate. We have to avoid any further procrastination. And we have to deal with our own “foul and pestilent congregation of vapours” – the record high and still rising levels of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere – before it is too late. Before “the rest is silence”.

Any opinions published in this commentary reflect the views of the author and not of Carbon Pulse.