Point Carbon analysts up EUA price scenario following EU nations’ MSR deal

Published 03:35 on April 30, 2015  /  Last updated at 09:43 on April 30, 2015  /  EMEA, EU ETS  /  No Comments

Analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon have raised some of their EUA price forecasts in the wake of EU nations on Wednesday agreeing to support an early-2019 start to the MSR.

Analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon have raised some of their EUA price forecasts in the wake of EU nations on Wednesday agreeing to support an early-2019 start to the MSR.

The analysts have so far left their “base case” forecasts unchanged, but nudged their entire EUA price estimate curve upwards under a scenario where the EU Council’s new common position on the MSR is realised.

In this case, they increased their forecasts for average EUA prices between 2017 and 2024 the most, after the EU Council agreed a common position that also called for backloaded and unallocated allowances to be placed in the reserve.

Point Carbon raised its price estimates for those eight years under that scenario between €1 and €4.

EUAs are now seen averaging:
– €12 in 2016
– €13 in 2017
– €15 in 2018
– €17 in 2019
– €19 in 2020

The analysts had previously predicted prices, based on the Council’s previously-agreed common position, would average just over €14 in 2020.

Under the new agreement, the analysts’ predicted EUA price rise slows slightly after 2025, en route to an average €31 by 2030.

By Mike Szabo – mike@carbon-pulse.com