Bullish outlook for European energy, carbon prices to year-end, say analysts

Published 19:01 on June 3, 2025  /  Last updated at 19:01 on June 3, 2025  / /  EMEA, EU ETS, UK ETS

The second half of 2025 will see higher prices across European energy markets, as well as EUAs, despite increases in gas production, uncertainty due to US tariffs, and weaker-than-expected demand, a consultancy forecast in a report circulated this week.

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FEATURE: Direct air capture shifts from hype to reality as race for scale and survival begins

Published 11:28 on June 3, 2025  /  Last updated at 12:10 on June 3, 2025  / , and /  Africa, Americas, EMEA, International, US, Voluntary

Mounting costs, technical challenges, and growing scrutiny are fuelling doubts over whether direct air capture (DAC) can deliver on its carbon removal promise, raising concerns that policymakers may be placing too much faith in a technology still in its infancy.

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Euro Markets: EUAs fall 1.5% after early excitement around halted US tariffs, TNAC figure

Published 17:37 on May 29, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:57 on May 29, 2025  / and /  EMEA, EU ETS, UK ETS

Benchmark EUA futures fell 1.5% on Thursday, retreating from a one-week high earlier in the day fuelled by excitement about the latest TNAC figure and news that President Donald Trump’s wide-reaching tariffs have been blocked by a US court.

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Euro Markets: EUAs make slim gains after funds extend net long positions

Published 17:07 on May 28, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:35 on May 28, 2025  / and /  EMEA, EU ETS, UK ETS

Benchmark European carbon prices were forced to settle for a small gain on Wednesday as the market initially reacted strongly to funds marginally extending their collective net long position, with strength also fed in from a supportive auction result, before prices eased over the afternoon, while UKAs slipped lower after investors cut their previous-record bullish positioning.

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Euro Markets: EUAs slump back as market awaits key investor, TNAC data

Published 17:04 on May 27, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:14 on May 27, 2025  / and /  EMEA, EU ETS, UK ETS

Benchmark European carbon prices fell on Tuesday, moving as much as 3% lower in a late sell-off, as sources noted a likely correction lower following Monday gains linked to a delay of US tariffs on the EU, with participants also hesitant to take on too much risk ahead of Wednesday’s publication of funds’ positioning data and the European Commission’s release of the 2024 Total Number of Allowances in Circulation (TNAC).

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US tariffs having minimal effect on EUA prices, says analyst

Published 17:24 on May 21, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:24 on May 21, 2025  / /  Americas, EMEA, EU ETS, US

The impact of US tariffs on EUA prices has been minimal, according to an analyst on a webinar on Wednesday, who sees benchmark European carbon permit price rises in 2026 driven by decreases in free allocations and tighter auction volumes. 

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ANALYSIS: EU-UK linking announcement “positive” but leaves market with more questions than answers

Published 16:35 on May 21, 2025  /  Last updated at 16:35 on May 21, 2025  / and /  Carbon Taxes, CBAM, EMEA, EU ETS, UK ETS

News this week that the EU and UK had struck an initial agreement to link their emissions trading systems (ETSs) with exemptions from upcoming carbon border fees sparked a flurry of British market activity, pushing benchmark prices above £55 for the first time since 2023, but traders and analysts alike questioned the scale of the gains given officials are yet to provide a timeline or any firm details on implementation of a link-up.

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EU ETS has delivered but faces uncertainty amid post-2030 climate target delay -report

Published 14:00 on May 21, 2025  /  Last updated at 14:36 on May 21, 2025  / and /  Carbon Taxes, CBAM, EMEA, EU ETS, International

The EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) is facing a period of uncertainty, as pressure mounts ahead of a revision next year to align with the bloc’s upcoming 2040 climate goal, and calls grow lounder for integrating international credits into the scheme, according to a report published Wednesday.

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Gold Standard provides further updates on cookstoves, CCPs, Article 6 crediting framework

Published 17:57 on May 20, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:57 on May 20, 2025  / /  Africa, EMEA, International, Nature-based, Paris Article 6, Voluntary

Gold Standard clarified updates on Tuesday to its crediting framework, concerning cookstoves project developers using the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB), new requirements for those looking to secure CCP labels, and its planned alignment with Article 6. 

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Verra launches review into European agri carbon project

Published 16:00 on May 20, 2025  /  Last updated at 17:55 on May 20, 2025  / /  EMEA, Nature-based, Voluntary

Verra has launched a review into an eastern European agricultural land management carbon project and now plans to update the associated methodology, it announced Tuesday. 

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