Most advanced and emerging economies are on a trajectory that would see them fall short of mitigation goals pledged in their INDCs, suggesting they require stronger policies, the OECD said in a report on Tuesday.
The report analysed its 34 member nations plus Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia and South Africa, and the EU bloc, which together account for more than 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The report found that despite nearly all decreasing their emissions intensities, their policies to combat climate change are still not working fast enough to achieve zero net carbon emissions by the end of the century.
“The momentum behind climate action is growing, with more countries taking action to price carbon and regulate emissions. But achieving the targets countries have set for themselves will require a sharp acceleration of effort,” said OECD environment director Simon Upton in a statement.
- The US would have to cut its emissions by 2.3-2.8% a year to meet its post-2020 targets, compared to an average annual reduction of 1.6% during 2005-12.
- The EU would need to cut its emissions by 2.8% a year to meet its post-2020 INDC, from 1.8% over 2005-12.
- China and India have based their goals for 2020 and 2030 on the ratio of emissions to GDP (carbon intensity), rather than on absolute levels. Their current rates of decoupling emissions from growth put them on track to meet their 2020 goals, although China’s 2030 target would require an accelerated rate of decoupling.
- Aggregate emissions from OECD countries peaked in 2007 but remained above 1990 levels in 2012, with economic growth and higher demand for transport offsetting improved energy efficiency and renewables deployment.
- The report also flagged a move away from nuclear energy by Japan and Germany, which have both increased their use of coal power in recent years without requiring CCS.
- For the emerging economies studied, aggregate emissions have significantly increased since the 1990s. These countries face different policy priorities and challenges, and should avoid locking in high-carbon pathways when setting policy and building new infrastructure.
The OECD said it would publish in-depth country profiles and a country-by-country data visualisation from mid-November.
By Ben Garside – firstname.lastname@example.org