Kazakhstan has proposed to set a 2030 target of keeping greenhouse gas emissions 15% below 1990 levels over 2021-2030, but could deepen the target to 25% by 2030 if certain conditions are met.

The target was agreed at a high-level meeting led by First Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev, according to a statement on the Prime Minister’s official website.

The headline target is likely to form part of the country’s INDC, for which most countries have submitted or are due to submit before October as their contribution to a global climate pact due to be signed in Paris in December and to take effect from 2020.

“The meeting participants identified an unconditional aim to limit and/or reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the level of 15%, from 2021 to 2030, conditional goal is 25% from 1990 up to 2030,” the statement said.

It did not specify which conditions would have to be met if the government is to settle for the 25% target. However, its goal under the UN Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period came with the condition that it would be allowed to keep its AAU surplus from the first period and that it was given access to carbon markets.

The new target represents a moderate deepening of its Kyoto target to keep emissions 10% below 1990 levels over 2013-2020. However, Kazakhstan’s Copenhagen pledge was a 15% cut below 1990 levels by 2020 on the condition that a deal was reached in 2015 that contained adequate targets for all emitters.

According to analysts Climate Action Tracker, Kazakhstan’s emissions are expected to soar in the 2020s. In June, they projected emissions in 2030 to be 24-37% above 1990 levels under current policy scenarios.

By Stian Reklev – stian@carbon-pulse.com

Not yet signed up to CP Daily? Subscribe to our free newsletter here