INDC Roundup: Countries race to meet Oct. 1 UN deadline

Published 10:42 on September 29, 2015  /  Last updated at 00:33 on September 30, 2015  / Stian Reklev /  Africa, Americas, Asia Pacific, Climate Talks, EMEA, International, Other APAC, Paris Article 6, South & Central

With the UN’s soft Oct. 1 deadline for submitting INDCs fast approaching, at least 15 more nations released their post-2020 climate plans on Tuesday. Here is our summary of what was pledged.

With the UN’s soft Oct. 1 deadline for submitting INDCs fast approaching, at least 15 more nations released their post-2020 climate plans on Tuesday.  Here is our summary of what was pledged:

Armenia – The first nation to submit a per capita-based carbon target, Armenia said to meet the 2C target the world could only emit 189 tonnes of CO2e per capita over 2015-2050, using 1990 population figures. For Armenia this would mean emitting 663 million tonnes of CO2e over those 35 years, equal to 5.4 tonnes per (1990) capita. In 2010, it emitted 2.14 tonnes per capita. The INDC said any unused emissions could be sold into an international carbon market.

Azerbaijan – The former Soviet republic pledged to cut its emissions by 35% below 1990 levels by 2030, but did not mention market-based mechanisms (MBMs).

Cabo Verde – The island nation gave no outright GHG goal but said would update to include this after its GHG inventory submission was completed in H2 2016. Mitigation commitments including an unconditional goal for 30% renewable energy penetration to its grid by 2025, or to 100% with international support to help cover the $1 billion cost. Unconditional energy saving goal of 10% v BAU by 2030 rising to 20% with international support. It also intends to craft NAMAs to help cut emissions in the transport, forestry and waste sectors. “Several conditional measures envisaged may be financed through mechanisms and/or carbon markets, including the Clean Development Mechanism, new market and non-market based mechanisms, and credited NAMAs,” it said.

Chile – Chile submitted one target for the LULUCF sector and one for the rest of the economy. It unconditionally pledged to reduce its carbon intensity to 30% below 2007 levels by 2030, and said this could be increased to 35-45% with international support. It made no mention of using markets, but referred to a previously announced plan to introduce a $5/tonne carbon tax to the power sector in 2017. It said it will recover and sustainably manage 100,000 hectares of forest, and reforest an additional 100,000 hectares, saving 1.5-1.8 million tonnes of CO2e annually.

Congo Republic – It offered to cut its BAU emissions by at least 48% by 2025, and by at least 55% by 2035.

Dominica – The small Caribbean nation pledged to cut its absolute GHGs by 17.9% below 2014 levels by 2030, by 39.2% by 2025, and by 44.7% by 2030.  It said that by 2030, total emission reductions per sector will be as follows: Energy industries -98.6% (principally from harnessing of geothermal resources); Transport -16.9%; Manufacturing and construction -8.8%; Commercial/institutional, residential, agriculture, forestry, fishing -8.1%; Solid waste -78.6%.  Dominica said the goal was conditional upon receiving “timely access to international climate change financing, technology development and transfer, and capacity building support for priority adaptation and mitigation measures”, adding that it intends to introduce MBMs to promote energy conservation/efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector principally through incentives to promote the import of hybrid vehicles.  Dominica was ravaged by Tropical Storm Erika in August, which left many dead or injured, over 500 people homeless, and caused damaged estimated at $392.3 million, equivalent to 75.88% of national GDP.

Kyrgyzstan – The Central Asian nation pledged unconditionally to keep its 2030 GHG levels at 11.49-13.75% below BAU, depending on GDP and population growth. With international support of up to $1.2 billion per year, it could raise the target to 29-30.89%. It also outlined 2050 targets, unconditionally pledging 12.67-15.69% below BAU, and 35.06-36.75% with funding. The INDC made no mention of markets.

Mali – The west African LDC offered to reduce three greenhouse gases – CO2, N2O and methane – from three sectors: 29% from agriculture, 31% from energy and 21% from LULUCF, below 2030 BAU levels at a cost of $34.7 billion. Given its huge soil carbon sink, Mali’s emissions would remain negative to 2030 regardless of new policies.

Namibia – Pledges an 89% cut on 2030 BAU emissions, with most of that coming from agriculture and forestry due to from curbing deforestation rates 75%. It also plans to increase the share of renewables in power production from 33% to 70%. Expects to be able to implement around 10% of its INDC costing $33 billion, with international support required for the remainder. “Namibia does not rule out the use of international market-based mechanisms to achieve its 2030 target in accordance with agreed accounting rules.”

Niger – It made an unconditional commitment to cut emissions to 2.5% and 3.5% respectively in 2020 and 2030, but could scale this up to 25% and 34.6% if it receives international funding of $6.23 billion. The emission cuts would be achieved through measures such as scaling up sustainable land management practices, reducing reliance on wood-based energy, and boosting renewables and energy efficiency. Niger said it supports an international carbon market such as the CDM, but said it should be changed to better facilitate LDCs. It called for an international carbon price of around $50/tonne CO2e.

Swaziland – The tiny land-locked African nation did not give an absolute reduction target, but said it would double the share of renewable energy sources between 2010 and 2030, introduce the commercial use of ethanol-blended petrol by 2030, and phase out F-gas emissions.

Tanzania – It said it would cut economy-wide GHGs by 10-20% below BAU by 2030, but did not mention anything about using MBMs.

Uruguay – Another nation that did not specify a single target, but instead listed a number of different targets for various sectors and gases. Uruguay said it would cut the CO2 intensity in the energy sector to 25% below 1990 levels by 2030 – 40% with international finance. It would also cut 13.2 million tonnes of CO2 (19.2 mt with funding) in the LULUCF sector, making it a net remover of CO2 by 2030. It also pledged unconditionally to cut CH4 and N2O intensity in beef production, waste and other sector 31-45%, 46-68% with international support.

Vanuatu – The Pacific island pledged to “approach” 100% renewables in the electricity generation sector by 2030, a move that would cut GHG emissions in the energy sector as a whole by 30% and in all sectors except agriculture and forestry by 15%. The INDC said investments of $9.5 million a year would be required, and the target was conditional on international support.

Vietnam – The Southeast Asian nation pledged to keep emissions 8% below BAU levels over 2020-2030, but could increase the target to 25% with appropriate funding. The unconditional pledge was lower than the 12.5% proposed in a July draft. According to Vietnam’s estimates, its GHG emissions are set to increase to 787 million tonnes of CO2e in 2030 from 247mt in 2010. Reductions would be made by cutting carbon intensity and increasing forest coverage. Vietnam adopted a green growth strategy in 2012 that foresaw linking up to the international carbon market.

Zambia – A conditional mitigation target of 25% under 2030 BAU with limited international support, or 45% with substantial international support. The higher goal involves project-based mitigation goals in forestry, agriculture and renewable energy. For this, Zambia expects to meet $15 billion of the total $50 billion cost, with the rest from external sources. No reference to market use.

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