EU carbon prices seen hitting €82 by mid-2026 amid mounting bullish sentiment, looming supply crunch
European carbon prices are expected to remain around current levels over the coming weeks before rising to average €82 in Q2 next year as looming supply constraints fuel bullish sentiment, according to a European investment bank.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts forecast tight EU ETS2 market, anticipate 2027 launch
Analysts polled by Carbon Pulse remain bullish for the EU ETS2 market, with benchmark price forecasts rising above €100 by 2030 across all submissions, and, according to multiple respondents, this could happen as early as 2027, when the bloc’s new cap-and-trade carbon pricing mechanism comes into force.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts revise up UKA price outlook on EU ETS linkage speculation, power sector emissions
Analysts have generally outlined a more bullish outlook for British carbon prices over the second half of 2025, compared to previous quarterly polling, driven by higher power sector emissions as well as renewed optimism for a link-up with the EU ETS following a May summit that signalled formal talks would now start.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts raise EUA price forecasts through 2030
Analysts have on average increased up their forecasts for EU carbon allowances for the remainder of the decade, according to a new Carbon Pulse poll.
Read MoreTurkiye’s ETS law passes parliament after months of delays
Turkiye’s long-awaited climate change framework bill was passed in the country’s legislature on Wednesday after months of delays and nearly a decade of preparations, mandating the creation of an emissions trading system (ETS) that allows the use of offsets for compliance, and leaving the door open for a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
Read MoreGoogle emissions climb 6% in 2024, carbon removal credit purchases up 14-fold
Google’s total greenhouse gas emissions rose by more than 6% in 2024, while the tech giant’s portfolio of contracted carbon removal credits increased 14-fold year-on-year.
Read MoreSB62: Annex I for Adelaide? Turkiye’s “bargaining chip” in battle to host COP31
Turkiye has indicated a willingness to drop its competing bid for the 2026 UN climate summit and let Australia and Pacific island nations host COP31 in Adelaide, sources told Carbon Pulse, but what Ankara wants in return may prove too steep a price to pay.
Read MoreCoalition of EU states push for reforms to ETS2 to thwart fuels price spike -Bloomberg
A coalition of EU member states is calling for changes to the bloc’s upcoming carbon market for transport and heating fuels, warning that unchecked price increases could trigger a public backlash and threaten support for the bloc’s climate goals, according to a draft document seen by Bloomberg.
Read MoreEU Commission warns Hungary over charges on free carbon allowances
The European Commission on Wednesday launched legal action against Hungary for imposing charges on companies receiving free emissions allowances under the EU ETS, arguing the measures breach bloc-wide climate rules.
Read MoreNorway, Switzerland complete first carbon removals ITMO trade under Article 6
The governments of Norway and Switzerland have completed the first international transfer of carbon removal credits under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, in a pilot deal structured by a CDR portfolio manager and supported by a Swiss buyers’ coalition.
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