POLL: Analysts expect UKAs to retain support on EU ETS on linkage hopes, major downside risk if talks fail
Carbon analysts from two firms see UK carbon prices averaging above £60 in 2026 as the prospects of linking the market with the EU ETS should narrow spreads to European permits, though they warned of political downside risks in the second half of the year if a mid-year EU-UK summit is delayed or talks fail to make a breakthrough.
Read MorePOLL: Policy uncertainty caps EUAs as weak demand, fund retreat offset structural bullishness
Analysts have slashed their forecasts for EU carbon prices, which they say are now being driven more by political risk than fundamentals.
Read MorePOLL: EU ETS emissions seen modestly lower in 2025 as weather, weak industry offset transport gains
Analysts expect verified emissions covered under the EU ETS were slightly lower in 2025, as subdued industrial activity and continued coal-to-gas switching were counterbalanced by weak renewables output and rising transport demand.
Read MorePOLL: EU carbon prices brace for structural squeeze following speculative rally
EU carbon prices have entered the final quarter of 2025 buoyed by a mix of speculative buying, compliance activity, and supportive power market dynamics, while analysts polled by Carbon Pulse increasingly focus on an expected structural tightening from 2026 that is set to reshape the supply-demand balance.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts see strong growth for UKA prices as linkage speculation remains key driver
Analysts continue to focus on the prospects for linkage between the UK and EU Emissions Trading Schemes as the main near-term price driver for UK Allowances, submitting bullish 2026 price forecasts in Carbon Pulse’s latest quarterly poll.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts forecast tight EU ETS2 market, anticipate 2027 launch
Analysts polled by Carbon Pulse remain bullish for the EU ETS2 market, with benchmark price forecasts rising above €100 by 2030 across all submissions, and, according to multiple respondents, this could happen as early as 2027, when the bloc’s new cap-and-trade carbon pricing mechanism comes into force.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts revise up UKA price outlook on EU ETS linkage speculation, power sector emissions
Analysts have generally outlined a more bullish outlook for British carbon prices over the second half of 2025, compared to previous quarterly polling, driven by higher power sector emissions as well as renewed optimism for a link-up with the EU ETS following a May summit that signalled formal talks would now start.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts raise EUA price forecasts through 2030
Analysts have on average increased up their forecasts for EU carbon allowances for the remainder of the decade, according to a new Carbon Pulse poll.
Read MorePOLL: Where will EUA2 futures be priced when the market launches?
Ahead of next week’s launch of allowance futures for the EU’s new ETS2 carbon market, analysts polled by Carbon Pulse are cautiously bullish on prices but warn of significant uncertainty – both in terms of liquidity and regulatory risk.
Read MorePOLL: All eyes on linking talks as analysts maintain bearish near-term outlook for UKAs
Analysts generally maintained a bearish near-term outlook for UK Allowance prices due to ongoing oversupply and policy uncertainty, as focus now turns to a May summit between Britain and the EU at which linking the two markets is expected to be discussed.
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