POLL: Analysts cut EUA price forecasts as trade tensions, weak demand weigh
Analysts have reduced their forecasts for EU carbon allowances, predicting that prices will remain under pressure in the short term as geopolitical tensions, weak industrial activity, and cautious sentiment continue to weigh on the market.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts predict EU ETS emissions fell 5-8% in 2024
Verified emissions covered by the EU ETS continued their downward trend in 2024, analysts polled by Carbon Pulse predict, with total output seen 5-8% lower year-on-year.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts retain bearish near-term outlook for UK Allowances on policy uncertainty, oversupply
Analysts have kept their bearish UK Allowance outlook for the year ahead due to the policy uncertainty and oversupply that continue to hang over the market, revising down forecasts for benchmark futures prices by around 5% compared to previous polling.
Read MorePOLL: Tightening supply, speculator positioning lead analysts to lift EU carbon price forecasts
Analysts have nudged up their forecasts for EU carbon allowance prices for the remainder of Phase 4 (2021-30), predicting that tighter market conditions will start to bite from this year.
Read MorePOLL: Negative sentiment engulfs UK ETS, from carbon price outlook to EU linking prospects
UK carbon prices are expected to remain around current levels through next year, with analysts maintaining a generally bearish outlook for the market due to persistent oversupply, delayed policy reforms, and wider challenges that many think will all but ensure the ETS is not re-connected to Europe’s this decade.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts slash EU carbon price forecasts as bearish factors continue to dominate
Analysts have slashed their forecasts for EU carbon allowance prices across the board, amid ongoing supply pressures and reduced demand from European power and industrial emitters.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts lift EU carbon price forecasts, but expect enduring bearish factors to cap any gains
Analysts have nudged up their short- and medium-term forecasts for EU carbon allowances, though most repeated expectations that any prices rises will remain limited by weak demand from emitters and ample supply.
Read MorePOLL: MSR to remove fewest permits to date in 2024-25 amid marginal decrease in EU ETS surplus -analysts
The annual reduction in EU carbon allowances for 2024-25 through the Market Stability Reserve will be the smallest yet, reflecting a slight decrease in the market’s overall supply in 2023, according to a poll of analysts.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts maintain bearish near-term UKA forecasts as fundamentals remain weak
Analysts have kept their UKA price forecasts at well below £50 for the next two years, citing weak fundamentals and ongoing policy uncertainty that will keep the market trading at a substantial discount to the EU ETS for most of the decade.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts again slash EUA price forecasts amid no signs of demand recovery
Analysts have once again cut their outlook for EU carbon prices, slashing their near-term forecasts by 10-15% on a mix of weak demand and ample supply.
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