POLL: EU ETS emissions seen down a record 14% in 2023
Verified emissions covered under the EU ETS likely fell by a record 14% year-over-year in 2023, according to a poll of 13 analysts.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts lower UKA price forecasts, as market poised for 2024 oversupply
Analysts have dropped their outlook for benchmark permit prices in the UK carbon market in 2024, citing oversupply, policy uncertainty, and expectations that a wide discount to EUAs will remain a characteristic of the British scheme.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts slash 2024 EU carbon price forecasts by 20% on weak demand, supply boost
Analysts have significantly reduced their outlook for EU carbon prices this year due to a number of short-term bearish factors related to both supply and demand, including macroeconomic uncertainty, weak power consumption fundamentals, and ample allowance supply due to auctions linked to the bloc’s REPowerEU energy independence policy.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts slash UKA forecasts due to weak policy ambition, low energy demand
Analysts have heavily cut their average price forecasts for UK carbon allowances out to 2030, citing bearish fundamental pressure from the demand side, as well as weak policy ambition from market reform efforts that will boost supply over the next few years.
Read MorePOLL: Analysts downgrade EU carbon price forecasts on weaker energy, industrial outlooks
Analysts have downgraded their outlook for EU carbon prices for the remainder of Phase 4 (2021-30) due a number of shorter-term bearish factors including stagnant industrial productivity, sliding demand from the power sector, and an increase in EUA auction supply.
Read MoreUKA & EUA POLL: Analysts slash UKA forecasts while leaving outlook for EUAs unchanged
Analysts have left their short-term forecasts for EU carbon prices more or less unchanged despite a large drop in carbon-intensive power generation and sluggish demand from industrials, while again raising their longer-term outlooks and significantly slashing their expectations for UK carbon costs.
Read MoreUKA POLL: Prices to recover but analysts see discount to EUAs remain amid supply pressures, policy uncertainty
UK carbon allowances will pare recent losses to average around £70 for the remainder of the year but will remain valued below their EU counterparts amid policy uncertainty and supply and demand factors, analysts predicted in Carbon Pulse’s inaugural UKA price poll.
Read MoreEUA POLL: Analysts raise short-term forecasts after Q1 rally, but warn of mounting bearish pressures
Analysts have raised their short-term forecasts for EU carbon prices, but warned of coalescing bearish pressures including from increasing permit supply and weakening fundamentals.
Read MorePOLL: EU ETS emissions seen edging up in 2022 as dirtier power gains trump industrial pain
Emissions from stationary installations covered under the EU ETS probably rose marginally last year, according to a survey of analysts, as a rise in CO2 from dirtier power generation was partially offset by a drop in industrial output.
Read MorePOLL: Finding pockets of bullish optimism, analysts lift EU carbon price forecasts
Analysts have raised markedly their forecasts for EU carbon prices for the next two years, despite the impending injection of tens of millions of additional permits into the market and wider concerns over the bloc’s economy.
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