ANALYSIS: Weak links in UN climate talks text put raised ambition in doubt
A key test of the impact of the COP28 UN climate talks will be whether the ambition filters through to countries’ updated NDC climate pledges, but experts say the vague language and loopholes of an otherwise breakthrough agreement could hamper this.
Read MoreANALYSIS: UN Article 6 crediting faces “severe” credibility threat, parties to pivot towards voluntary carbon and bilateral trade
After COP28 talks ended in turmoil, UN carbon crediting under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 provision is now not expected until 2026, with the way forward complicated by political divisions, attention may pivot towards the voluntary carbon market and scaling international trading arrangements.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Experts mull impact of potential forest carbon split under Article 6
Countries are already advancing plans to trade emissions reductions from forest carbon activities under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, yet a decision on the eligibility of such initiatives under the Paris pact’s Article 6.4 centralised carbon crediting mechanism is not imminent, a potential misalignment that has experts at odds.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Observers welcome late agreement on Article 6 crediting, concerned by gaps
International carbon market stakeholders have broadly welcomed the last-minute adoption of recommendations for how the UN crediting mechanism under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement should operate, but also pointed to uncertainties that risk diluting ambition and noted the challenge of deferring many key decisions given the ambiguous nature of certain sections of the text.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Experts warn of Article 6 “backlash” if nations fail to build capacity
Countries must immediately start building capacity for Article 6 readiness, carbon market participants have warned, citing a general lack of understanding among governments about the Paris Agreement’s international emissions trading rules, the risks of overselling mitigation outcomes, and the dangers of allowing nations to revoke the authorisation of carbon transfers across borders.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Responsibility for Canada’s wildfire emissions depends on who you ask
Record-setting wildfires in Canada this year have released significant volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere, but experts gave Carbon Pulse different opinions as to whether the country should alter its existing emissions reporting practices to account for this.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Aviation, energy sectors see slump in voluntary carbon credit retirements
The two largest voluntary carbon credit buying sectors over the past three years have seen significant declines in retirements in 2023, registry data collated by an analytics firm shows, at the same time as integrity initiatives look to shore up confidence in the market.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Vietnam, Indonesia seen late, but not lagging on JETP
Two of the newer signatories of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) have been accused of lagging in their commitments but experts believe the Southeast Asian nations have valid and complex reasons for a lacklustre uptake.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Major US agtech company still bullish on voluntary carbon market, while other ecosystem players demonstrate caution
Amidst sentiments of distrust in nature-based solutions and a stuttering voluntary carbon market (VCM), a once-billion-dollar-valued agtech company remains confident in its plan to scale up soil carbon offset generation, while others in the sector forecast more conservative economics.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Observers sceptical on readiness of Article 6 REDD+ buyers as nations prepare ground
Experts on the UNFCCC process have expressed scepticism that buyers are immediately lining up to buy Article 6-ready REDD+ results, which are expected to be offered to the market in the near future by at least three rainforest nations, though they suggested that there may significant future demand for such jurisdictional units if their use is fully established for transfer under the Paris Agreement.
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