Turkiye has won the race to host COP31 in the resort city of Antalya in 2026, beating out Australia, with both countries agreeing to share the presidency in an unprecedented arrangement for UN climate negotiations.
The unconventional setup was announced late Wednesday by Chris Bowen, Australia’s minister for climate change and energy, who said negotiations over the matter were ongoing but that his government has withdrawn its bid to hold the talks in Adelaide.
Sources at COP30 in Belem, who asked not to be identified because the decision hasn’t been officially announced by both governments yet, confirmed that Turkiye and Australia would share the presidency.
Based on their agreement, the details of which are still being ironed out, Turkiye would effectively be the ‘hosting president’ while Australia would be the ‘negotiations president’, the sources said.
In the UNFCCC’s rotating order, next year is the turn of the ‘Western European and Others Group’, or WEOG in climate negotiations jargon, to host the annual climate summit.
The Australian government was seeking to host the 2026 COP in partnership with the Pacific Islands to highlight their climate plight amid rising sea levels and to demonstrate how a large fossil fuel producer can transition towards cleaner energy.
In building its bid, Australia invested heavily in its campaign and had been in consultation with the Pacific nations for three years, with many observers predicting that they would win.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to withdraw or compromise after his country vied to be home to COP26 but later backed down against the UK and its candidate city, Glasgow.
Turkish sources said Erdogan wants to build international legitimacy and global leadership for his country by hosting major geopolitical events such as UN climate negotiations and next year’s NATO summit.
Turkiye has steadfastly continued to push its own bid, erecting a towering banner promoting Antalya at the country’s COP30 pavilion in Belem.
The government is highlighting the southwestern coastal city’s transport links, venue capacity, and ample supply of accommodations, while also calling attention to Turkiye’s renewable energy efforts and the 2053 net zero target enshrined in its Paris Agreement NDC.
A 2026 COP in Turkiye will also coincide with the launch of the country’s emissions trading system, which follows the implementation of a new national climate law passed this year.
“Turkiye is moving from a climate ‘outlier’ to a crucial global broker,” said Umit Sahin, head of the climate policy programme at Sabanci University’s Istanbul Policy Center.
“Its unique position between developed nations (Annex I) and the global majority gives it an unprecedented chance to mediate deadlocked negotiations.”
Read more: SB62: Annex I for Adelaide? Turkiye’s “bargaining chip” in battle to host COP31
GERMAN PRESSURE
As the stand-off dragged on during the Belem talks – one of the last chances for nations to agree on next year’s venue – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week said Australia would not veto Turkiye’s bid to host COP31.
He stressed that avoiding a forced move to hold the summit in Bonn, which would be required under UN rules in the case of a stalemate, was more important for global climate diplomacy than further pursuing his country’s bid.
Albanese argued that Pacific interests should be prioritised and that a Bonn fallback would undermine perceptions of unity.
Sources with knowledge of a high-level WEOG meeting on Wednesday said that this “showed an opening” on which Turkiye “pounced”.
“The Germans didn’t want to host again,” one source said, referring to COP23 in 2017, which was held in Bonn – home to the UNFCCC’s headquarters – as a result of president Fiji not having adequate infrastructure or transport links to handle the summit.
The WEOG meeting was presided over by German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth, and Carbon Pulse understands that Germany exerted more pressure on Australia to concede because the same level of diplomatic coercion from Berlin would not have carried the same weight when directed at Turkiye.
Another source added: “There was quite a lot of pressure extended on the Australians, because Germany definitely didn’t want it. This played into Australia backing down … It was a game of who gives up first and Australia lost.”
Bowen said that another Bonn COP would mean “12 months with a lack of leadership, no COP president in place, no plan”.
“That would be irresponsible for multilateralism and this challenged environment, and we didn’t want that happen.”
The event, which could cost more than $1 billion, reportedly had mixed support within Australia’s cabinet, which further complicated the country’s bid.
ANNEX I
Ankara has previously floated “innovative solutions” to break the impasse, but these ideas were not taken up by Albanese or Bowen.
Australia is understood to have made several offers to Turkiye in exchange for its concession, including an economic package that includes support for its rare earth minerals sector.
According to sources, Ankara at one point was willing to withdraw in exchange for being removed from Annex I of the UNFCCC – a long-standing objective that would reclassify it as a developing country.
Turkiye argues its Annex I status unfairly limits access to climate finance and imposes stricter mitigation and reporting expectations.
Although it has no binding financial obligations under the Convention, the designation has shaped its negotiating stance for decades.
Its Annex I classification dates back to 1992, when OECD members were automatically included.
The country has long contended that it does not belong in the same category as industrialised, high-income nations. It successfully exited Annex II in 2001, but experts note that Ankara routinely raises Annex I removal as a negotiating demand.
Australia was understood to also be offering diplomatic support for Turkiye’s removal from Annex I, alongside other incentives.
However, any decision to remove Turkiye from Annex I would require a formal amendment to the Convention and likely consensus from all UNFCCC parties – a significant procedural hurdle.
PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS
Bowen said there was still more to be negotiated, with WEOG nations needing to continue discussions over the next 24 hours.
He said a model has been put forward where a leaders-level pre-COP is hosted in a Pacific island that would be a “pledging event” for the Pacific Resilience Facility.
Sources said this venue would likely be Fiji or Palau, with a formal announcement about next year’s negotiation cycle to come in Belem on Thursday.
They added that the Pacific island nations could also be brought in to coordinate specific negotiating tracks at COP31.
Mosese Bulitavu, Fiji minister for environment and climate change, told Carbon Pulse that Pacific parties are to be briefed by Australia.
“As COP president of negotiations, I would have all the powers to manage, to handle the negotiations, to appoint facilitates, to draft text, and to issue a cover decision,” Bowen said.
Gavan McFadzean, manager of the climate change and clean energy programme at the Australian Conservation Foundation, told Carbon Pulse that hosting the talks in Turkiye would not “bring the spotlight to the huge existential crisis now faced by Pacific Island nations”.
“We’re disappointed that Albanese did not pull out all the stops necessary to maximise Australia’s chances at getting the COP,” he said.
“We think that it is a mistake that he didn’t attend the [pre-COP] leaders’ meeting. We’re not saying this would have changed the outcome, but that was one of the signals that the prime minister sent that showed we weren’t absolutely maximising every intention of getting this COP.”
By Mark Tilly, Mike Szabo, and Rebecca Gualandi in Belem – [email protected]
