ANALYSIS: New EU ETS benchmarks neutral for market with ‘fallback’ values unchanged
Leaked draft benchmarks, which are expected to be the final set of values, that will determine how many free carbon permits industrials receive under the EU ETS across 2026-30, are not likely to have a major impact on market prices, analysts have said, with one team forecasting an overall 4 Mt/year increase in handouts over the period, compared to the previous draft.
Read MoreANALYSIS: CORSIA ‘standoff’ continues between supply and demand as uncertainty clouds market
Airlines are yet to deliver meaningful demand for CORSIA-eligible credits, despite repeated assurances of commitment, leaving a growing pipeline of eligible carbon credits in search of buyers and raising concerns among project developers, insurers, and analysts about the pace of investment.
Read MoreDATA DIVE: How could Microsoft’s credit buying ‘pause’ impact different engineered CDR sectors?
Reports from earlier this month that Microsoft may be easing away from new investments in the carbon removal (CDR) sector caused alarm for developers, though some pathways stand to be relatively more exposed to a drop-off in forward buying from the tech giant.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Latest Safeguard compliance data continues last year’s trends, for better or worse
This week’s release of surrender data for the second year of Australia’s reformed Safeguard Mechanism has highlighted both the positives and drawbacks of the scheme, depending on who you ask.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Microsoft’s ‘pause’ in CDR buying is a stark wake-up call for the nascent sector
A reported pause to Microsoft’s carbon removal (CDR) purchasing programme exposes a major demand challenge for the nascent technology-based market, but also represents a “bittersweet” opportunity for the sector to mature, project developers and experts told Carbon Pulse.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Weakening of EU ETS price signal would damage carbon removal investment trajectory
Reforms to the EU ETS that ease prices in the cap-and-trade compliance carbon market would reduce the incentive to scale engineered CO2 removal technologies, according to experts, though complementary financing measures will also be essential to meet the bloc’s negative emissions goals.
Read MoreClimate Litigation Roundup: Liability claims face setbacks, but one Peruvian case could open future pathways
The past month in climate litigation saw courts across multiple jurisdictions weigh greenwashing allegations and reject liability claims against major emitters, though one legal researcher said a landmark ruling in a decade-old case against a German utility has cracked the door open for more to come.
Read MoreANALYSIS: Cookstove projects face tougher standards, more competition in race to sell carbon credits
The clean cookstove sector is rapidly transforming from a voluntary model to a high-integrity, data-driven carbon market that will satisfy the compliance stipulations for international trade in UN markets, experts and industry participants have said.
Read MoreANALYSIS: EU carbon strengthens as minimalist MSR revision proposal offers “no nasty surprises”
Benchmark EU carbon prices gained nearly €2 in the space of a few minutes on Wednesday morning, immediately after the European Commission confirmed that its proposal to reform the Market Stability Reserve would only scrap a clause that invalidates excess permits in the supply-balancing mechanism.
Read MoreANALYSIS: From extreme scarcity to buyer uncertainty – is CORSIA’s greater challenge now demand?
After years with only one eligible supply source, credits approved for CORSIA use in its current phase have begun to steadily flow onto the market, reaching above 30 million earlier this year, but in light of an escalating war in the Middle East that has disrupted international air travel and jet fuel flows, as well as a lack of legislated penalties for non-compliance, some participants are now questioning whether the global aviation offsetting scheme has a growing demand problem.
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