Volatility returns - As the US and Iran resumed exchanging strikes this week, challenging the fragile April ceasefire, consultancy Rystad Energy warned oil prices could surge towards $150/bbl if fighting intensifies further. Rystad added that it was too early to determine whether the flare-up would lead to a full resumption of hostilities, but noted that the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic agreement had fallen from about 40% just weeks ago. Still, the impact on crude markets could be moderated by record releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, weaker Chinese crude imports, and continued flows of around 5 mln bpd of Saudi oil that bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the Yanbu pipeline into the Red Sea. Brent crude prices touched $92/bbl on Thursday.

Airlines are focusing more on soaring jet fuel costs and operational pressures than carbon credit purchases as prices for CORSIA-eligible offsets continue to weaken ahead of the scheme’s upcoming mandatory phase in 2027, according to a member of ICAO’s Technical Advisory Body (TAB).

When governments provide short-term relief for energy crises, they tend to go in the wrong direction, whereas prioritising structural responses can create much greater resilience in the long run, according to new research.