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TOP STORY
POLL: EU carbon prices brace for structural squeeze following speculative rally
EU carbon prices have entered the final quarter of 2025 buoyed by a mix of speculative buying, compliance activity, and supportive power market dynamics, while analysts polled by Carbon Pulse increasingly focus on an expected structural tightening from 2026 that is set to reshape the supply-demand balance.
DAILY NEWS TICKER
CP Daily News Ticker: 7 October 2025
The CP Daily News Ticker is a running list of all our news updated in real-time throughout the day. This is also the home to our ‘Bite-sized updates from around the world’, which previously featured in our CP Daily newsletter.
CARBON FORWARD EXPO LONDON
Supply tightness will see EU ETS price at minimum €100/t by 2027, say analysts
Analysts from four companies are predicting EUA prices will rise to at least €100/tonne by 2027 due to supply tightness, Carbon Forward Expo London heard on Tuesday.
Senior EU Commission official defends low ETS2 price projections
A senior European official defended the European Commission’s €30 per tonne of CO2 price estimate for the new EU Emission Trading System for heating and transport (ETS2) during the Carbon Forward Expo London conference on Tuesday, arguing that most analysts’ models are also starting to converge towards a lower outlook.
EU mulls connecting CRCF with international carbon markets
The European Commission is looking at potential connections between the EU’s Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming (CRCF) certification scheme and international carbon credits delivered under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, a senior official told Carbon Pulse.
US absence at COP30 “is a massive opportunity”, says global climate expert
The British chemist and long-time climate advisor to the UK government, David King, hailed the planned US absence at the COP30 climate conference in November as a “big advantage” for UN climate talks as fossil fuel interests will lose a powerful voice at the negotiating table.
EU ETS-covered steel emissions down 5% so far in 2025, says analyst
Steel sector emissions have fallen over 5% this year to date, due to lower production as well as efficiency measures, an analyst told the Carbon Forward Expo London conference on Tuesday.
Poland calls for carbon credits purchase to be split equally across ETS1 and ETS2
The Polish climate secretary called on Tuesday for the EU to split purchases of international carbon credits evenly across both ETS1 and ETS2, in order to make the energy transition “easier and more cost-effective”.
Warsaw welcomes EU steel tariffs as boost for industry’s green shift
The European Commission announced new steel tariffs on Tuesday, saying they will protect EU manufacturers from dumped imports in the transition towards green steel production – and prompting positive reactions in Poland.
EMEA
Majority of European Parliament’s political parties call for frontloading ETS2 revenues
Lawmakers from five political parties in the European Parliament have called on the European Commission to borrow future revenues from the Emissions Trading System for heating and transport (ETS2) to start funding decarbonisation measure from this year, in a letter seen by Carbon Pulse on Tuesday.
Germany, Italy urge EU rethink on 2035 combustion engine ban
Germany and Italy have jointly called for changes to the EU’s plan to ban cars with internal combustion engines from 2035 – a move that reportedly caught the Social Democrats in Germany’s coalition government by surprise.
Sweden plans second BECCS reverse auction “before the end of the year”
Sweden is planning to launch a second reverse auction for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology, with the process expected to conclude before the end of the year, a government body told Carbon Pulse.
Ireland hikes carbon tax for fuels, en route to €100/t in 2030
Ireland will increase its carbon tax rate for fuels to €71 per tonne, starting on Wednesday for petrol and diesel vehicles, according to the 2026 budget released on Tuesday.
Commission intends to publish ‘provisional’ EU CBAM benchmarks this year
The European Commission intends to adopt provisional benchmarks for its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) this year based on historical data, with the benchmarks finalised in 2026.
Driving EU carbon removal uptake requires compliance system, on top of ETS integration -report
Delivering sufficient demand for high-quality carbon removals in the EU will require an EU Removal Compliance System, on top of integrating removals into the ETS, according to a climate non-profit, which proposed several options for the entities covered by such a system.
Euro Markets: EUAs slip in directionless trading amid anticipation of COT data, steady energy
European carbon prices ended Tuesday slightly lower after a day of largely directionless trading, swinging to either side of Monday’s settlement while gas and power were relatively steady and a number of participants attended the Carbon Forward London Expo event.
UK could keep up oil and gas output in line with global net zero emissions, consultancy claims
The UK could boost its oil and gas production in the North Sea while remaining on the IPCC’s path for reaching net zero emissions globally by 2050, a consultancy argued on Tuesday.
Niger seals $145 mln deal with AfDB to boost solar rollout, grid reform
Niger and the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group have signed a $144.7 million energy sector reform and investment agreement aimed at expanding solar power capacity, modernising the grid, and strengthening governance to attract private capital into the country’s renewables sector.
AMERICAS
CL CARBON FORUM: Chile to set Article 6 approach in new roadmap at COP30
Chile will at COP30 launch a roadmap establishing its Article 6 of the Paris Agreement project typology and clarifying interactions among the country’s many carbon pricing instruments, attendees heard at the Chile Carbon Forum in Santiago on Tuesday.
CL CARBON FORUM: Chile seeking unified carbon registry within 18 months -official
Chile’s Ministry of Environment (MMA) aims to launch a single registry for the country’s array of tradable carbon units within a year or 18 months, an official told Carbon Pulse in Santiago on Tuesday.
US senators introduce pipeline safety act, seek new rule for CO2 pipelines
A bipartisan pair of US senators are looking to to reauthorise governing regulations for pipeline safety, including seeking a new rule for CO2 pipelines.
WCI compliance instrument surplus grew almost 2% in Q3
The compliance instrument surplus for the California-Quebec joint ETS grew 1.7% in Q3, approaching the 500 million mark, recently published state data showed.
Allowances on offer edge higher at Q4 RGGI auction
RGGI auction volumes on offer at the fourth quarterly sale of 2025 edged less than 0.5% higher, according to a Tuesday notice.
Second US DOE list of terminated grants targets Texas, Louisiana DAC hubs -media
Two large direct air capture (DAC) hubs are included in a new purported list of projects whose financial awards are being abruptly cancelled by the US DOE, although project developers say they have not been informed of any funding cancellations.
INTERVIEW: US certification update to conserve millions of trees, verification tool lever for biodiversity finance
Changes to a national US forest certification mean more than 3 million acres (1.2 mln hectares) of forested lands across the country will be designated as conservation areas within two years.
Advocacy groups sue US EPA over cancellation of $7 bln clean energy programme
Labour, environmental, and community organisations have launched a federal lawsuit challenging a recent decision by the US EPA to shut down a nationwide renewable energy initiative intended to help low-income households access solar power.
California-based biogas producer to develop hydrogen fuel through new partnership
A Californian developer of dairy digester projects announced on Tuesday an agreement with a US-based decarbonisation firm to produce carbon-negative hydrogen for fuel.
Project developers partner to launch carbon-negative data centre hub in Wyoming
Three companies announced a strategic partnership to develop a carbon removal-embedded energy hub to supply artificial intelligence power needs in Wyoming.
Alberta premier dismisses TIER changes, new pipeline proposal concerns
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith dodged questions about the impact her government’s actions were having on declining prices in the province’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) programme.
ASIA PACIFIC
Australia opens consultation on savanna fire management ACCU methods
Australia’s Emission Reduction Assurance Committee (ERAC) on Tuesday formally launched a consultation on the government’s two savanna fire management (SFM) methods.
GX-ETS working group proposes benchmark-setting methods for aluminium, industrial materials
A working group under Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has proposed ways to determine benchmarks for the production of aluminium and three types of industrial materials under the national emissions market.
VOLUNTARY
Puro launches upgraded crediting platform
Carbon removal (CDR) standard Puro.earth is launching upgrades to its certification platform aimed at making the system faster and easier for suppliers to certify projects.
Large offset project developer to axe staff in restructuring
One of the heavyweights in the voluntary carbon market is announcing job losses as it restructures to maintain growth following a challenging two years that saw it engulfed in a major scandal and the subsequent departure of one of its co-founders.
INTERNATIONAL
World falling short of COP28 renewable targets, despite record growth -IEA
The world is at risk of missing the COP28 pledge to triple installed renewable capacity by 2030, even though it is on track to add more clean energy between 2025 and 2030 than the current combined electricity capacity of China, the EU, and Japan, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
Global investment firm raises $20 bln to drive energy transition
A New York-based private equity firm announced on Tuesday the end of the fundraising period for its flagship energy transition strategy, having raised $20 billion in fund commitments and strategic capital.
AVIATION/SHIPPING
Aviation faces minimal risks of carbon leakage, and small price increases, due to EU ETS -study
There is minimal risk of flights being diverted away from Europe in order to avoid emissions pricing, and only small increases in ticket prices expected, if the market is expanded to international flights, according to a new report.
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PREMIUM JOB LISTINGS
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FREE REPORTS
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EVENTS
Carbon Forward Expo London: Oct. 7-9, London – Europe’s premier carbon markets conference. Our flagship event takes place in London once again, and will celebrate its 10th year analysing global carbon markets. Over three information-packed days, we’ll bring you leading experts, thought-provoking content, trailblazing organisations, lively discussions, and innovative thinking across the compliance, voluntary, removal, and renewable energy markets. This year’s edition will feature more side events, workshops, and our inaugural startup Pitch Hub! More details and a call for proposals to follow. Super Early Bird discounts now available. Register
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Conference 2025: Oct. 8-9, Houston – Now in its third year, Wood Mackenzie’s expert analysts, as well as leaders from carbon emitting industries, policy makers, upstream players, project developers, financiers, EPCs, and midstream transportation, storage, and utilization providers will discuss the costs and economic feasibility of CCUS projects. Hear from Bank of America, Chevron New Energies, J.P. Morgan, Storegga, Stripe and the US Environmental Protection Agency. View the latest agenda and register here.
Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS 2025): Oct. 21-23, Johannesburg – The award-winning VUKA Group has officially launched CMAS 2025, to catalyse high-integrity carbon markets across Africa. By connecting supply and demand, the summit will bring together policymakers, investors, standards bodies, corporates and developers to build a credible, investable carbon pipeline in Africa. Its timing is important. With growing global momentum around carbon pricing and the operationalisation of Article 6, the outcomes of the subsequent G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg in November are expected to influence the future architecture of global carbon markets. Join us to shape Africa’s carbon future. 10% discount code H8E4P.
DeCarbon Tokyo: Dec. 3-4, Tokyo – DeCarbon Tokyo 2025 brings together regulators, corporates, financiers, and innovators to explore Japan’s pivotal role in carbon markets and the global net-zero transition. With the launch of Japan’s GX Strategy and GX-ETS, discussions will assess the integration of J-Credit and JCM into compliance systems, alongside linkages with EU ETS, China ETS, and Asia-Pacific initiatives. Day 1 examines Japan’s carbon credit market, bridging voluntary and compliance demand with case studies on nature-based and CCUS projects. Day 2 spotlights Carbon Removal Technologies – BECCS, DAC, biochar, mineralisation, and marine CDR – focusing on commercialization, MRV, financing, and scaling opportunities across markets. Learn more
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