Insights > Analysis > ANALYSIS: New EU ETS benchmarks neutral for market with ‘fallback’ values unchanged

ANALYSIS: New EU ETS benchmarks neutral for market with ‘fallback’ values unchanged

Published 14:06 on May 1, 2026 / Last updated at 15:52 on May 1, 2026 / / EMEA (Compliance Markets & Taxes, Europe), Insights (Analysis), Net Zero Transition (Industrial Decarbonisation)

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Leaked draft benchmarks, which are expected to be the final set of values, that will determine how many free carbon permits industrials receive under the EU ETS across 2026-30, are not likely to have a major impact on market prices, analysts have said, with one team forecasting an overall 4 Mt/year increase in handouts over the period, compared to the previous draft.
Leaked draft benchmarks, which are expected to be the final set of values, that will determine how many free carbon permits industrials receive under the EU ETS across 2026-30, are not likely to have a major impact on market prices, analysts have said, with one team forecasting an overall 4 Mt/year increase in handouts over the period, compared to the previous draft.


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