The type of engine installed on an LNG carrier is becoming the defining factor in its future competitiveness under tightening maritime emissions rules, with older vessel classes facing mounting carbon compliance costs that could accelerate their exit from the market, according to new analysis.

Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy (MAE) has approved new rules governing the authorisation, registration, traceability, and transfer of mitigation outcomes under Article 6, creating the country's first dedicated framework for participating in international carbon markets despite longstanding legal uncertainty surrounding carbon credit trading.

Rule of thumb – A study on machine learning published in the journal Sustainability last week covering 195 countries found governance quality to be the strongest predictor of CO2 emissions, ahead of energy structure, human development, and macroeconomic factors. Using a coarse decision tree model on data from 1996 onwards, researchers identified strong nonlinear and threshold effects across governance, social, economic, and energy indicators. They said improvements in institutional quality and energy systems could significantly reduce emissions beyond critical thresholds.

CORSIA prices failed to rebound last week, with price assessments for eligible units down by more than 12% week-on-week and benchmark ICE futures dipping below $10/tonne amid higher jet fuel prices, even as market executives expressed hope for resurgence in demand once the Middle East conflict ends.

The conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the Parliament's largest group, is divided over whether to restrict, delete, or broaden a tool that would allow the European Commission to temporarily suspend the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Runway ready – Russia’s application for accreditation under CORSIA has entered the final stage of review by ICAO, with a decision expected in August, according to the country’s economic development minister. Interfax reported last week that Maxim Reshetnikov said Russia’s application had successfully passed all previous assessment stages and described it as “fairly strong”, adding that any negative outcome could result in a request for revisions rather than outright rejection. Accreditation could provide a boost to Russia’s voluntary carbon market by allowing airlines to use domestically issued carbon credits for future CORSIA compliance, observers said.

Oil's ups and downs – Goldman Sachs thinks global oil demand may have fallen more than expected from the price spike caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran. The investment bank sees two-sided risks to oil prices going forward, according to the Financial Post, quoting Bloomberg. April oil sales data from China and Western Europe jointly imply about 2 million barrels a day of downside risk to the bank’s “already low” demand estimates for the month, analysts said in a note dated May 31. That adds about $10 a barrel of downside risk to a forecast of Brent crude prices of $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter. But there is still "significant" risks of prices spiking higher if flows of oil continue to be interrupted in the Straits of Hormuz, the analyst said.

Nearly three-quarters of low- and middle-income countries include clean cooking or wider household energy measures in their national climate plans, according to a new public tracker launched last week by a US-based non-profit.

For now, technology-driven activities dominate Latin America’s Article 6.2 Letters of Authorisation (LoAs), in a departure from the REDD-heavy profile of the local voluntary market (VCM) – but jurisdictional REDD+ (J-REDD+) is poised to flood both systems, Carbon Pulse has reported.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could drive a significant expansion of carbon pricing beyond Europe, with countries including Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan likely to introduce their own schemes to avoid paying the bloc’s import fee, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).