Place your bets - Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding rapidly, enabling users to bet on a wide range of future events, including climate-related outcomes, geopolitical developments, and extreme weather risks. Climate-linked trading remains a relatively small but fast-growing segment, with hundreds of millions of dollars already wagered and volumes expected to increase significantly. The broader industry now handles around $10 bln in monthly bets and is attracting substantial investment, with leading platforms valued in the tens of billions of dollars. Supporters argue that these markets provide a useful mechanism for aggregating information, as participants are financially incentivised to assess evidence and price probabilities accurately. In this view, prediction markets can help cut through political bias and offer a real-time signal of expectations on complex issues such as climate policy, temperature trends, or regulatory change. They can also serve practical functions, such as allowing businesses to hedge risks linked to policy shifts like carbon pricing. Critics, however, contend that the platforms risk trivialising serious global challenges by turning them into speculative betting opportunities. Ethical concerns have emerged around markets that involve sensitive or harmful scenarios, including natural disasters, arrests, or ongoing conflicts. There are also worries about insider trading and manipulation, particularly where individuals could profit from non-public information or even influence outcomes. Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying, especially in the United States, where federal authorities claim jurisdiction while several states argue the platforms resemble unregulated gambling. The sector’s political connections have further raised questions about oversight. Despite these concerns, the industry is projected to grow substantially over the coming years, with new entrants entering the market and revenues potentially reaching $10 bln annually by 2030, even as debate continues over its societal value and risks. (E&E News)

CORSIA carbon futures continued to slump as the supply of credits crept higher and the conflict in Iran pushed up jet fuel prices, leading to expectations of a possible downturn in demand from the aviation sector.

The record release of emergency oil supplies from International Energy Agency (IEA) countries is helping to quell supply shortages, especially in parts of South Asia – although the crisis will persist until the Middle East war subsides, the IEA's chief said on Monday. 

Researchers from ETH Zurich have suggested that strategically located reforestation efforts would achieve the same planetary cooling effect as more randomly situated projects, even if fewer trees were planted.

Japan-Cambodia JCM - Japan and Cambodia adopted revisions to rules and guidelines for their bilateral Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) in line with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement during the seventh joint committee meeting held on Mar. 5, including new guidance for REDD+ and afforestation and reforestation projects. The committee also approved one new project idea note (PIN), granted PIN exemptions for six existing projects, adopted one cookstove methodology, and authorised the issuance of 1,039 credits from a LED streetlight project. Participants also discussed the pipeline of upcoming projects and confirmed plans to update bilateral documents to enable the mechanism to continue operating beyond 2030.

Agri credits - Japan-based project developer Faeger has last month signed an MoU with rice milling equipment manufacturer Satake Asia to collaborate on developing agricultural projects in Southeast Asia. The partnership will focus on reducing GHG emissions from farming activities while creating additional revenue streams for farmers and rice milling businesses through carbon credit generation. The initiative will explore the use of locally available resources such as rice husk biochar and aims to establish systems that return environmental value to agricultural communities while supporting more sustainable farming practices, the firms said.

Green priorities - Brunei has allocated $480 mln for infrastructure and development projects under its 12th National Development Plan (RKN12), which outlines 305 projects worth about $4 bln through 2029. The plan includes funding for forest conservation and the development of carbon trading, alongside initiatives to improve tourism sites and restore natural areas such as Kampong Ayer and Pulau Selirong Forest Recreation Park. The investments are part of the government’s broader efforts to support sustainable development while diversifying the country’s economy.

A regenerative system combining improved grazing management and pasture composition can increase soil carbon and reduce greenhouse gas emissions on livestock farms, but the economic benefits depend more on productivity and climate conditions than carbon revenues, a recent study found.

Palm fraud - Indonesian companies under investigation for alleged palm oil fraud supplied biofuel feedstocks to European firms including Eni and Neste, according to an investigation by AFP and SourceMaterial. Authorities allege the firms mislabelled palm oil as palm oil mill effluent (POME), a waste byproduct used in biofuels, in a scheme that allegedly involved bribing officials and cost the Indonesian government millions in lost tax revenue. Both Eni and Neste said they had no direct contracts with the implicated companies and moved to exclude them from their supply chains after the probe emerged.

Funding secured - NASDAQ-listed Indian renewable energy company ReNew said its subsidiary for commercial and industrial customers has secured a $95 mln equity investment led by private equity firm LeapFrog Investments, which agreed to commit $50 mln.  The subsidiary ReNew Green has 2.5 GW of committed capacity for corporate clients, of which more than 2 GW is already operational, the company said. The investment aims to expand capacity to the industrial sector, which accounts for roughly half of the country’s electricity demand. A paper earlier this year said rising financing costs risked slowing down India’s renewable energy deployment.

China has launched a pilot programme to extend support for the commercial applications of hydrogen across multiple industrial sectors, according to a government notice published Monday.

Japan is seeking public input on revisions to several existing methodologies under its national voluntary J-Credit programme, according to a recent notice from the environment ministry.

Nepal has launched a national carbon registry as it steps up efforts to participate in international carbon markets under the Paris Agreement.

Mark it down - Emitters under China's national ETS planning to carry over their unused permits from FY2019-24 are required to submit their applications in the coming months, according to a notice published by the national registry. Those intending to participate in the second batch of allowance carryover should file their applications before Mar. 20, it showed. The application window for the last batch will be open during Mar. 31 - June 10, and the registry will complete the relevant work by June 26, the notice added.

Clean electricity is here - Energy retailer Flow Power has partnered with Octopus Australia to support the Blind Creek Solar Farm and Battery project in New South Wales, designed to deliver clean electricity to the grid. The project combines a 300 MW solar photovoltaic plant with a 243 MW/486 MWh battery energy storage system near Bungendore and is part of a broader effort to strengthen renewable generation and grid stability in the region. Once operational, the facility is expected to produce significant volumes of renewable power and help meet peak demand by storing solar energy generated during the day for evening use, contributing to Australia’s transition away from ageing coal-fired generation.

Going green - Indonesia plans to gradually retire diesel-powered electricity generators as new solar plants come online in a bid to end diesel imports in 2026, Jakarta Globe reported, citing Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia.  The government aims to build up to 100 GW of solar capacity, largely aimed at electrifying roughly 5,700 villages that still lack reliable power. Diesel units will be switched off once solar projects reach commercial operation, with geothermal plants also being developed to support the transition, the minister said, adding that Indonesia may increase the use of crude palm oil to produce biodiesel if global oil supplies become difficult to secure.

Improving the project method development process, strengthening Indigenous leadership, and improving market signals were laid out as key elements that would help Australia's carbon market achieve the country's climate goals, according to a report by the Climate Change Authority (CCA).

I’ll be there for you - The Global Carbon Council has launched a proprietary carbon market infrastructure designed to help countries implement Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, enabling them to participate more effectively in international carbon trading. The platform provides an integrated system that includes modules for project registration, national carbon registries and transaction tracking, allowing governments to authorise and transfer Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes while ensuring transparency and compliance with global reporting requirements. The infrastructure will give countries, particularly in the Global South, an interoperable and ready-to-deploy solution for operationalising carbon markets and mobilising climate finance through high-integrity emissions-reduction projects, the GCC said.

Raise the bar, please - South Korea's planned roadmap for ESG data disclosure mandate has drawn criticism, as the proposed inclusion threshold is considered not ambitious enough, Hankyoreh reported. The number of companies subject to mandatory climate disclosure proposed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) is only 58, even though the number of companies that voluntarily disclosed climate information already reached 700 last year. FSC plans to gather opinions by the end of this month and announce the finalised plan for ESG data disclosure in April.