The UN climate talks in Paris should only set a future emission target for 2025 because the INDCs submitted so far put the world on track to emit 17-21 billion tonnes of CO2e more in 2030 than required to meet the 2C target, analysts Climate Action Tracker said Wednesday.
The analysis group released a survey of 15 INDCs submitted to the UN so far, accounting for 64.5% of global GHG emissions.
“If the current 2030 INDCs are locked in, holding warming below 2C would become almost infeasible, as CO2 emission reduction rates would need to exceed 5% a year after 2030, and would make holding warming below 1.5C almost impossible,” the group said.
“Given the present level of pledged climate action, commitments should only be made until 2025,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of the report’s authors.
The report found that the INDCs submitted so far put the world on track to emit around 53-57 billion tonnes in 2025, 12-15 billion more than a path to meet the 2C target.
In 2030, emissions would be 55-59 billion tonnes, 17-21 billion too many.
UN negotiations have resumed in Bonn this week. Key sticking points ahead of a December global deal in Paris are whether to set regular reviews of national actions and how to weigh each country’s contribution to emission cuts.
The 2025 levels would still leave it plausible to meet the 2C target – although it would be much more expensive than necessary – but if Paris draws a roadmap to 2030 based on these emission levels, it won’t be realistic to keep global warming below 2C, the report said.
“Most governments that have already submitted an INDC need to review their targets in light of the global goal and, in most cases, will need to increase the level of ambition. Those that are yet to submit need to work to ensure the highest level of ambition,” it said.
For details on all the INDCs to date, check our INDC Tracker.
There are another 140 INDCs to come, but the biggest emitters have already submitted. Seven of the 15 assessed plans – Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore and South Korea – are considered inadequate by Climate Action Tracker.
Some significant emitters have yet to release their plans, but even the ten biggest of them – India, Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Pakistan – only represent 18% of remaining emissions, meaning there is little chance the overall picture will change before negotiators descend on the French capital.
By Stian Reklev – firstname.lastname@example.org