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EU carbon prices will rise to €11.40 by 2020, according to a Thomson Reuters Point Carbon annual survey of European carbon market participants and observers.
Germany is considering whether to support a minimum EU ETS price among various options for strengthening the bloc’s carbon market, a source at Germany’s environment ministry said on Friday.
Operators of the two US carbon markets may be starting to consider linking options for their cap-and-trade schemes, but a somewhat loose and informal connection between the two programmes has emerged out of a few traders’ profit and loss books.
An uptick in compliance buying in California’s carbon market has prompted observers to anticipate that the upcoming auction won’t fully sell out, an event that they said could be bearish in the short-term but bullish in the long run.
EU carbon prices slipped on Friday amid weaker German power prices to put the contract on the brink of technical support levels that analysts say could trigger further falls if breached.
A government-commissioned report on Friday said Australia could meet its 2030 GHG emission targets without putting in place new policies, although the analysis relied on the ERFand Safeguard Mechanism creating a traded market with prices up to A$80 ($58.91) per tonne of CO2e.
Spot NZUs traded in a tight range this week, occasionally testing year-high levels of NZ$14.65 ($10.02) but ultimately failing to push on towards NZ$15 amid an ongoing lack of news from the government on the ETS review.
Closing prices, ranges and volumes for China’s regional pilot carbon markets this week.
A table of Verified Emission Reduction (VER) prices and offered volumes, based on voluntary market data provided by Carbon Trade Exchange (CTX).
BITE-SIZED UPDATES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
Crunch time in Montreal – Government negotiators will gather in Montreal May 11-13 for high-level talks aimed at progressing work on a global market-based measure to help international aviation achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020. The deal is set to be clinched at UN aviation body ICAO in October but much of the detailed options could be whittled down next week. This could include clearing up which offset standards and project types will be eligible and whether to apply a date restriction from when credits are eligible (some green groups are pushing for 2020, though Point Carbon analysts expect 2016 to be the most likely cut-off). ICAO is considering applying a discounting rule for REDD credits, forcing airlines to two units for every tonne emitted, Bloomberg reported, citing two anonymous officials. Green groups are divided on whether REDD should be eligible at all.
Who is the new UN climate chief? – Climate Home profiles Mexico’s Patricia Espinosa, who has received broad approval as the choice of new UNFCCC head due to her hosting of the 2010 Cancun talks, long diplomatic career and lack of political baggage. Mexico is also seen as a bridge between the developed and developing world.
Auto industry carbon market? – China may soon get an emissions market for the auto industry, local newspaper Beijing Business Today reported (in Chinese). Based on a similar model in California, auto sales outlets would be given points based on how many electric vehicles they sell. Those who sell below a set standard would have to buy points from those who sell above the requirements. The paper quoted the CEO of the BAIC Motor Corp., who is also a member of the consultative committee to the Beijing municipal government. Government officials first mentioned such a scheme in 2014, but it has not been confirmed.
Coal plants threaten point of no return – Coal-fired power plants planned for South and Southeast Asia would “spell disaster for the planet,” according to World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. He said: “If Vietnam goes forward with 40GW of coal, if the entire region implements the coal-based plans right now, I think we are finished.” Kim also called on international leaders to “wake up from the fog of success” of the December climate accord in Paris. (Climate Nexus)
CPP? What’s that? – A national poll released this week by a group called Voice of the People revealed that 70% of Americans have never heard of the Clean Power Plan, but most do believe restricting GHGs should be a high priority, ClimateWire reports.
And finally… Mental gymnastics – Australia’s Environment Minister Greg Hunt, recently named the world’s best minister, on Friday hit the headlines when the Guardian revealed he had argued in court there is no clear link between coal and climate change. An NGO had accused Hunt of not taking climate impacts into account when approving the Adani coal mine, Australia’s biggest. But Hunt said the mine would only make climate change worse if total global coal consumption increased, and that there was many factors deciding that. Because any increase in net global GHG emissions was a matter of speculation there was no need to impose conditions on the mine, Hunt said. The mine is expected to create 128 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year, most of it in India where the coal will be exported to.
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