Slower-than-expected emissions growth in agriculture, land-use and fossil fuel projects means Australia will emit 50 million tonnes of CO2e less than previously thought over 2013-2020, extending the country’s over-achievement of its UN emissions target, the government said Friday.

Australia is on track to emit 78 million tonnes of CO2e below its target levels in the Kyoto 2 period, the Department for the Environment said in a quarterly update.

“This latest estimate confirms Australia is on track to beat its 2020 target, and is better placed to achieve its 2030 target of reducing emissions to 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels,” it said.

In December, it expected to beat the target by 28 million tonnes, partly due to landfill-owners buying 22 million CERs and handing them over to the government.

The latest revision came despite growing emissions in Australia’s electricity sector after the carbon price repeal.

It said three factors caused the adjustments in the emission forecast:

• Poor seasonal conditions are hampering growth in agriculture.
• Low commodity prices are stymieing growth in LNG and coal mining.
• Land-clearing is slower than expected.

The update did not address claims by the Queensland government that land-clearing emissions are growing much faster than national data suggests.

By Stian Reklev – stian@carbon-pulse.com

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