The EU is falsely claiming it is on track to meeting its 2C long-term climate goal, and putting off aligning the post-2020 emissions cap reductions in its ETS with the required trajectory until after 2030 risks missing the target completely, according to analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon.
In a white paper published on Monday, the analysts point out that the European Commission’s proposed post-2020 ETS review proposal falls short of putting the bloc on track to meeting its 2050 aim to cut emissions 80% under 1990 levels, a goal that has been calibrated to form the EU’s contribution to meeting the 2C global temperature goal.
“It is false to claim that the EU is on a credible or cost-effective track towards its self-determined contribution to the Paris Agreement,” the analysts said.
“While the Commission presents the case that the EU is on track towards delivering this target, our assessment suggests that the EU may have an even chance of either meeting or missing the target.”
“Brussels is rolling the dice.”
In a document released earlier this month, which is meant to advise EU leaders on whether to review the EU’s 2030 goals in the light of the December Paris Agreement, the Commission said the bloc should focus on meeting its current proposed 2030 goals until a worldwide stocktake of climate pledges is held in 2018.
This disappointed environmental campaigners who say the bloc’s CO2 reduction aim falls short of globally-agreed commitments.
EU leaders had been due to address the issue at the upcoming Mar. 17-18 European Council meeting, but it was left off the draft agenda amid a strong focus on the bloc’s migration crisis.
The Point Carbon analysts found it “very unlikely” that the EU will deepen its 2030 targets during the current review, and although they don’t expect the debate to go away, they only expect lawmakers to address any tougher climate action by considering post-2030 goals.
By Ben Garside – firstname.lastname@example.org