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POLL: Analysts slash EUA forecasts on gloomy outlook following price rout

Analysts have slashed their estimates for EU carbon prices across the board, cutting some of their forecasts by as much as two-thirds following the recent EUA crash and amid wider fundamental and macroeconomic weakness.

EU Market: EUAs break below €5 as market looks to lawmakers for support

EU carbon prices dropped below €5 on Tuesday to its lowest for 22 months as analysts slashed their forecasts and some observers urged lawmakers to step in with tougher reforms.

Finnish utility Fortum urges EU to deepen climate goals after Paris

Finnish power producer Fortum has urged the EU to deepen its climate goals, including tightening the ETS cap by more than proposed, because the Paris Agreement reduces the risk of carbon leakage.

Bite-sized updates from around the world

California’s Air Resources Board (ARB) will on Wednesday release its findings in its investigation into livestock offsets from the T&M Bos Dairy in Fair Oaks, Indiana.  The information will be published on ARB’s website at 1200 local time (2000 GMT). The investigation, reported here, considered whether these offsets may have been generated while the facility was not in compliance with Indiana air permitting rules.

When New Hampshire voters go to the polls today in the state’s primary, nearly half of all Republicans will be moderate or liberal, according to exit polling from 2012 and 2008. Just as many describe themselves as politically independent, at 47%.  And it’s not unusual to hear Republicans here talk openly about climbing temperatures as an issue that might soften the lines between seasons and pose risks to the state’s sprawling stands of forest.  Even Jeb Bush, speaking in a town hall on Sunday, said “the climate is changing, man has to have some influence, given our role on the planet … It’s just impossible for me to suggest that we don’t have an influence.”  He talked about the issue for more than five minutes in response to a question, saying that to address warming there needs to be a “bottom up” approach to adaptation, and that Congress should increase funding for research and development into clean energy. ClimateWire reports.

Alabama postpones CPP compliance for court verdict – Officials in the US state have delayed creating a plan because they are confident the court will uphold a stay to halt implementation while lawsuits against it proceed. “We don’t want to waste efforts, if we’re wrong and the court doesn’t grant a stay, we have enough time between spring and September to do whatever we need to do,” said state air quality official Ron Gore. (EP News Wire)

The Union of Concerned Scientists has released a new report detailing the history of an Eastern Interconnect working group in 2010 to 2012, which developed research showing the eastern US could cut CO2 by 42% and reach 30% renewable energy by 2030 – even more aggressive numbers than contemplated in the Clean Power Plan.  Mike Jacobs, a senior energy analyst for UCS’ climate and energy program, examined the pre-CPP plan and found that it replaces coal with renewables, including a 600% increase in wind and 20% efficiency savings by 2030. (H/T Utility Dive)

Groups urge Ontario to limit free carbon permit handouts – The Canadian province should distribute free carbon allowances only to those companies at risk of carbon leakage, rather hand industries all the free allowances they need for the first four years of the planned cap-and-trade system, as proposed under its current plan, argue Gideon Forman of environmental charity the David Suzuki Foundation and Steven Fish of business group Canadian Business for Social Responsibility. (Kitchener Post)

In an op-ed looking at yesterday’s announcement that ICAO had reached a deal on aviation CO2 standards, BusinessGreen’s James Murray argues that the measures “won’t plug the jumbo jet-sized hole in the Paris Agreement,” left by the exclusion of the sector’s emissions.

Making the German economy more efficient is the second big pillar of Germany’s climate policy – with the development of renewables being the first. But the government is struggling to achieve the energy savings it planned, says Joachim Wille in the Frankfurter Rundschau. Tax reductions for housing insulation, as proposed by the federal government, have been blocked by Bavaria, taking away an important incentive for home owners to refurbish their houses. Germany is obliged to cut energy consumption by 1.5% each year under the EU efficiency directive. But according to experts, the target will not be met, Wille writes. (H/T Clean Energy Wire)

Bloomberg climate risk initiative targets secret polluters – Heavyweight investigation into how business reports vulnerability to climate policies and impacts could leave many corporations exposed, say experts. (Climate Home)

Oil majors accused of using misleading metric for global energy demand – Ahead of BP’s annual energy outlook release on Wednesday, Tom Burke of environmental think tank E3G argues the industry uses misleading metrics to dismiss the threat from clean sources. (Climate Home)

Brussels event on the EU ETS Modernisation Fund – NGO Change Partnership will host a debate on Feb. 16 in the Parliament on how the EU ETS can accelerate clean energy development in Poland.

And finally… Australia’s environment minister Greg Hunt has been named the greatest minister in the world by the World Government Summit. He travelled to the UAE to accept the gong award in person, and in his speech mentioned policies to support solar power, water quality and an idea for a global rainforest recovery programme (but oddly no reference to Australia’s first increase in GHG emissions for a decade recorded last year, or Hunt’s approval of dredging to pave the way for a mega coal export terminal next to the Great Barrier Reef). (Huffington Post)

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